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NFL FREE PICKS 2022: 25-23-1
SUN: PHILLY -2.5 vs. San Fran
CINCINNATI +5.5 @ Buffalo = WIN
KANSAS CITY -8.5 vs. Jacksonville = LOSE
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NFL VEGAS SEASON TRENDS
FAVS: 179-92-1 SU & 124-144-4 ATS
6pts Favs: 71-18 SU & 39-50 ATS
10pt Favs: 23-3 & 9-17 ATS
B/B RG: 28-43 SU & 33-35-2 ATS
OVERS: 117-154-1
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PRIMETIME DOGS 29-17 ATS
Division Dogs 45-32 ATS
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BEST NFL TRENDS 40-53-2
KC -8.5 vs. Jags: Andy Reid 22-3 SU & 16-9 ATS after bye (9-0 w/ Mahomes)
NYG +7.5 @ Philly NYG 10-2 ATS dogs w/ Daboll +16-4 ATS as Playoff dog
CIN +5.5 @ Buffao: Cincy 12-2 ATS RG + Burrow 16-6-2 ATS as a dog
DAL+3.5 @ SF: Dallas 27-12 ATS run + 43-21-1 ATS as dog since 1990
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JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -8.5
KC won regular season meeting 27-17
J’VILLE: 23-14 UNDER run
J’VILLE: 15-21 ATS run
J’VILLE: 14-37 SU last 2+yrs
J’VILLE: T. Lawrence 14-21 SU & 16-19 ATS inc: 5-13 SU & 7-11 on road
J”VILLE: 5-21 SU last 24 RG
KC: Andy Ried 22-3 SU & 16-9 ATS after bye week (9-0 w/ Mahomes)
Mahomes 35+td passes 3rd straight year (Brees/P. Manning)
Mahomes 7-4 SU & ATS in Post Season play
Andy Reid 19-16 SU & ATS in Post Season play (15 wins by d/d)
KC: 18-30 ATS run
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NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -7.5
NYG: Danny Nickels 2-10 in Primetime games
NYG: 26-11 ATS as road dogs
NYG: 10-2 ATS as dogs under new h/c Brian Daboll
NYG: 16-4 ATS as a Playoff Underdog
NYG: 15-3 ATS as Division road dogs
NYG: 3-6 SU & 6-3 ATS vs. Post Season teams
PHIL: 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS vs Post Season teams
PHIL: 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS vs. NY.
Teams 0-2 vs Clubs are 7-13 SU & 9-10-1 ATS but 6-1-1 as 6+pt dogs
3rd straight RG for NYG…Host teams: 37-10 SU & 9-18 ATS in these spots
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CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO -5
CIN: 16-6 UNDER
CIN: 12-2 ATS RG
CIN: Burrow 16-6-2 ATS as a dog
CIN: 3 OL starters out
BUF: 36 of last 55 wins have come by d/d
BUF: 31-10-4 ATS in wins as favs with Josh Allen at QB
BUF: 10-1-1 ATS after allowing 28+pts
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DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO -4
DAL: 27-12 ATS run
DAL: Dak Prescott 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in Playoffs
DAL: H/C Mike McCarthey 11-9 SU & 12-7-1 ATS in Playoffs
DAL: 19-6 ATS vs. NFC teams
DAL: 43-21-1 ATS as dog since 1990
Dallas 6 games vs. teams with less rest…most in NFL history
SF: 43-18 w/ Jimmy G….13-33 when he doesn’t start
SF: 16-9 UNDER run
SF: 19-13 SU & 13-17-2 ATS as home favs
SF: 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS vs. Playoff teams
SF: Brock Purdy has 2+ TD passes in 6 straight games.
SAN FRAN won 11 straight Dallas 4th straight road game
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2023 SEASON OVER/UNDERS:
NFL OVERS: 16 UNDERS: 15 PUSH: 1
OVERS:
ATLANTA 4.5 -120 (6)
BUFFALO 11.5 -135 (12)
CAROLINA 6.5 +105 (7)
CINCINNATI 9.5 -130 (11)
DALLAS 10.5 +105 (12-4)
DETROIT 6.5 -125 (8)
NY GIANTS 7.5 +125 (9-6-1)
NY JETS 5.5 -160 (7-9)
PITTSBURGH 7.5 (8)
MIAMI 8.5 -135 (9)
PHILADELPHIA 9.5 -130 (13-3)
SAN FRAN 9.5 U+125 (12)
SEATTLE 5.5 -135 (8)
MINNESOTA 9.5 +105 (12)
JACKSONVILLE 6.5 -135 (8-8)
KANSAS CITY 10.5 (13-3)
UNDERS:
ARIZONA…8.5* -110 (4)
BALTIMORE 10.5 Even (10)
CHICAGO 6.5* +125 (3)
CLEVELAND 8.5* (7-9)
DENVER 9.5* -135 (4-12)
GREEN BAY 10.5* -160 (8-8)
HOUSTON 4.5* (2)
INDIANAPOLIS 9.5* -160 (4-11)
LAS VEGAS 8.5* (6-11)
LA RAMS 10.5* (5-12)….Most losses by a SB champ
NEW ENGLAND 8.5 (8)
NEW ORLEANS 8.5* (7-10)
TAMPA BAY 11.5+105 (8)
TENNESSEE* 9.5+115 (7)
WASHINGTON 8.5 +145 (7)
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PUSH: LA CHARGERS 10 -125 (10-6)
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NFL NOTES FOR 2022:
1. Last 18 teams to start 0-2…failed to make the playoffs. (Cincy/TENN/Raiders/Atlanta)
2. At least 2 teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs in 18 of 19 yrs.
3. At least 1 team finished in 1st in their division the season after finishing last in 17 of the last 19 seasons
4. At least 4 teams have made the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year before since 1990
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2022 PREDICTIONS:
SUPER BOWL WINNER: CINCINNATI BUNGLES 22-1
SUPER BOWL MATCH UP Cincinnati vs. New Orleans
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SB Tickets: Denver 17-1 Raiders 40-1 Dolphins 40-1 Steelers 70-1
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AFC EAST…….Buffalo -230….(Miami +450)
AFC NORTH…CINCY +165….(Pitts +950)
AFC SOUTH…TENN +185
AFC WEST…..LVR +650………(Denv +260)
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NFC EAST…….Dallas +155…(Giants +800)
NFC NORTH…Minn +240
NFC SOUTH…NO +300………(Atl +3200)
NFC WEST…..Rams +125
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2021/22 FREE NFL: 35-24-3
2020/21 FREE NFL: 19-23-3
2019/20 FREE NFL: 25-26
2018/19 FREE NFL: 33-16-1
2017/18 FREE NFL: 29-18-5
2016/17 FREE NFL: 24-16-1
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2021 NFL REGULAR SEASON TOTALS:
FAVS: 166-100-1 SU & 127-139-1 ATS (1 pick)
HM DOGS: 37-68 SU & 52-55 ATS
D/D Favs: 39-7 SU & 29-17-1 ATS
6pt Favs: 96-28-1 SU & 64-56-2 ATS
3pt Favs: 43-46 SU & 38-52 ATS
B/B Road Games: 34-35 SU & 36-33 ATS
3rd Straight RG: 3-1 SU & ATS
O/U: 126-139-2
Combo’s:
Favs/Over: 56 Dog/Over: 69
Favs/Under: 69 Dog/Under: 67
Favs/PUSH: 2 PUSH/UNDER: 1
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SB PARLAY/REVERSE COMBOS
Favorite/Over: 15 times
Favorite/Under: 12 times
Underdog/Over: 10 times
Underdog/Under: 13 times
(4 games omitted: SB 1 didn’t have a total, three games pushed on either the game or total)
FAV/OVER has it only three times since 2000.
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BIG NFL FAVS DON’T LOSE
6+pt Favorites:
2018/19: 84-23 SU & 51-54-2 ATS
2017/18: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
2016/17: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
2015/16: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
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2020 NFL VEGAS SEASON AFTER WK #15
Home team: 109-94 SU & 84-113-6 ATS
Favs: 136-71-1 SU & 91-106-7 ATS
D/D favs: 29-6 SU & 14-20-1 ATS
6pts favs: 65-15 SU & 35-42-3 ATS
3pts favs: 37-30-1 SU & 32-32-4 ATS
B/B Road games: 23-21 SU & 25-18-1 ATS
3rd straight RG: 1-0 SU & ATS
HM DOGS: 23-48 SU & 29-39-4 ATS
Over/Unders: 99-107-1
Combos:
Favs/Over: 44 Favs/Under: 44
Favs/Push: 1 Dogs/Over: 51
Dogs/Under 59 Push/Under: 3
Push/Over: 4 Pk/OVER: 1
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2017/18 NFL VEGAS STATS REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 143-108 SU & 127-117-8 ATS (4 Lon/1 Mex)
FAVS: 181-74 SU & 134-102-9 ATS (1 game pick)
D/D FAVS: 27-4 SU & 16-17 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 70-39 SU & 50-42-6 ATS
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 33-38 SU & 34-34-3 ATS
HOME DOGS: 34-63 SU & 46-47-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 116-136-4
COMBINATIONS:
FAVS/OVERS: 53 FAVS/UNDERS: 78
DOGS/OVER: 54 DOGS/UNDER: 60
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NFL 2016/17 REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 151-100-1 SU & 119-122-11 ATS (4 gms N/A)
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 28-36-1 SU & 29-33-2 ATS
FAVS: 167-86-2 SU & 122-122-11 ATS (1gm Pick)
D/D FAVS: 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 59-38-2 SU & 52-43-4 ATS
HOME DOGS: 30-48 SU & 36-43-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-120-2
FAVS/OVERS: 65 FAVS/UNDERS: 62
DOGS/OVER: 62 DOGS/UNDER: 54
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2015/16 REGULAR SEASON NFL
HOME TEAMS: 136-117 SU…117-130-6 ATS (3 gms London)
FAVORITES: 157-95 SU & 117-130-6 ATS (3 pickem)
10+PT FAVS: 15-5 SU & 9-11 ATS
3PT Favs or less: 46-47 SU & 38-49-6 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-53 SU & 42-41-3 ATS
OVERS: 118
UNDERS: 131
PUSH: 4
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2014/15 NFL REGULAR SEASON
Home tms: 144-101-1 SU & 114-135-3 ATS (4 neutral)
Home dogs: 26-49 SU & 35-41-1 ATS
Favorites: 169-83-1 SU & 120-130-3 ATS
(3 pickem games)
10pt Favs: 21-2 SU & 11-12 ATS
6pt+ Favs: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 117-137-2
COMBOS
FAVS/OVERS: 54 FAVS/UNDERS: 64
DOGS/OVERS: 59 DOGS/UNDERS: 69
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2013/14 REGULAR SEASON#’s
HOME TEAMS: 152-101-1 SU & 136-112-6 ATS
FAVORITES*: 179-75-1 SU & 132-115-8 ATS
10pts FAVS: 27-7 SU & 17-16-1 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-61 SU & 44-47-2 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-118-4
GAMES DECIDED BY 7pts or less: 123 of 256
COMBOS
FAVS/OVER: 66 FAVS/UNDER: 64
UNDERDOGS/OVER: 61 UNDERDOGS/UNDER: 54
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NFL 2012/13 regular season
Home Teams: 126-139-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 49-46-1 ATS
Home Favs: 77-88-1 ATS
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SB tams that fail to score 21 pts in the SB are 2-22 SU & 4-19-1 ATS.
(Exception..Giants over the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII & Pats in SB 53 13-3 over Rams)
Super Bowl teams scoring at least 27pts are 27-4 SU & 24-6-1 ATS.
(Exceptions Carolina (29) vs. Pats, SF (31) vs. Balt, Atl 28 vs. Pats, Pats vs. Eagles
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2018/19 NFL PLAYOFFS
PLAYING ONLY ONE: 4-1-1
$100 BEST BETS: 4-4-1
$50 OTHER PLAYS: 1-3
$25 IF YOU MUST: 3-1
OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE DAY: 2-3
EVERY BET/EVERY PLAY: 9-6-1
$100 WIN REVERSE: 3-3 = +540
$100 PARLAYS: 3-3 = +392
$100 PROP PLAYS: 24-21-2 = +500
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