2022/23 NFL FREE PICKS: 27-23-1
2023/24 NFL FREE PICKS: 6-2
THU: UNDER 48 -120 Seattle @ NY Giants
WED: SAN FRAN -14 vs. Arizona = WIN
TUE: DETROIT -2 @ Green Bay = WIN
MON: UNDER 44.5 Philly @ TBay = WIN
THU: SAN FRAN -10 vs. NY Giants = WIN
MON: NEW ORLEANS -3 @ Carolina = WIN
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2023/24 NFL SEASON TRENDS thru week 4
FAVS SU: 42-18 ATS: 32-26-2
6pts Favs: 12-3 SU & 8-7 ATS
10pt Favs: 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS
B/B RG: 7-7 SU & 7-6-1 ATS
OVERS: 29-35
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WEEK 5 TRENDS
THURSDAY
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON -5.5 44.5
When teams score more than 20 points against a Bears team led by Justin Fields, they are 20-0 SU.
Bears lost 14 straight and have allowed 25+ points in all of them.
Bears: 1-10 SU last 11 road games
Bears: 1-11 ATS run
Bears: 22-48-1 ATS since 2019, worst of any team.
Bears: 12-3 OVER run
Ohio State 1st round picks (JUSTIN FIELDS, D. Haskins, Art Schlister, Stroud) are 9-42 straight up in their NFL careers
Wash: 3-6 ATS run
Wash: 6-2 ATS RG run
PRIMETIME NIGHT GAMES last 2+ years
22 OVERS
44 UNDERS
(3-10 this season)
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SUNDAY
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO -5.5 48.5 (London, England)
Favs in international games: 30-9-1 SU & 26-14 ATS
Trevor Lawrence is 24-16 UNDER last 3 years
Jags: 8-3 ATS run
Jaguars’ 11th game in the International Series (5-5 SU/ATS).
Josh Allen: 59 wins…45 have been by 7+pts
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HOUSTON @ ATLANTA -2.5 41.5
Texans: 9-4 ATS run
C.J. Stroud has the most pass attempts without an INT to start a season for a rookie all time
Ohio State 1st round picks (Fields, D. Haskins, Art Schlister, CJ STROUD) 10-41 straight up in their NFL careers
Falcons: Desmond Ridder 0-8 ATS first half spread
Falcons: 5-10 ATS run
Falcons: UNDER 8-2 run
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CAROLINA @ DETROIT -8.5 45
Carolina: 8-6-1 ATS run
Jared Goff most profitable QB ATS last 5 years = 42-24-1 ATS
Detroit: 12-2 ATS run (3-1 TYr)
Detroit: 12-3 ATS last 15 games at home
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TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 42.5
Tenn: H/c Mike Vrabel 24-23 SU #1 as an Underdog
Colts: 3-7 ATS run
Colts: 8-2 OVER run
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NY GIANTS @ MIAMI -10.5 49.5
Daniel Jones career: 23-35-1 SU, 32-27 ATS inc: Road/Neutral: 19-9 ATS
Giants: 5-3 ATS RG run
Dolphins: 7-2 ATS run
Dolphins: 10-5 OVER run
Dolphins haven’t the won AFC East in 14 seasons—5th longest active streak in NFL
Dolph: 18-6 ATS at home
Dolph: Tua Tags 13-5 ATS at home

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BALTIMORE -3.5 @ PITTSBURGH 38.5
Balt: UNDER is 14-5 run
Pitt: w/out Ben Roethlisberger: 32-21-3 ATS
Pitt: 6-2 SU & ATS run
Pitt: QB Kenny Pickett: 10-6 ATS in his career
Pitt: 10-4 UNDER home game run
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NEW ORLEANS @ NEW ENGLAND -1.5 40.5
Saints have held opponents under 21 points in 11 of 12 games
Saints: 31-12 SU, 28-14-1 ATS road game run
Derek Carr: 20-30-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span
Jameis Winston: 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite
Saints: 10-0 UNDER run
Pats: 2-9 ATS run
Since Brady left, Belichick/NE: 26-29 SU, 25-29-1 ATS
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CINCINNATI -3 @ ARIZONA 44.5
Bengals: Burrow 16-4 SU & 16-3-1 ATS last 20 vs. non-divisional opponents
Bengals: 9-4 UNDER run
Teams who score 3pts or fewer the previous week: 75-48-4 ATS the next week over the last 20 years. (2-0 LW)
Cards: 1-10 SU run
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PHILADELPHIA -4.5 @ LA RAMS 50.5
Phil: Jalen Hurts 21-1 SU lasts 22 regular season starts
Phil: 24-3 SU last 26 games as the favorite
Phil: 9-1 SU RG run
Phil: 11-2 SU last 13 games on the road but 4-9 ATS
Rams: Stafford 31-63 SU & 36-56-2 ATS vs. winning teams
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KANSAS CITY -5.5 @ MINNESOTA 53.5
Mahomes 20-0 SU on the road as a favorite of 5+ pts
KC: 11-2 SU road game run
KC: 6-2 UNDER run
Vikings 11-0 in one-score games last year…0-3 this year
Minn: 23-15 OVER in Kirk Cousins starts since 2021
Minn: 3-7 ATS run
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NY JETS +2.5 @ DENVER 43.5
Jets: 0-6 straight up road games
Jets: 8-1 UNDER run
Denver: 8-1 OVER run
Denv: 2-6 ATS home games run
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DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 45
Dallas: UNDER 6-2 run
49ers: 12-2-1 ATS run
49ers 16-1 SU home game run
49ers: 15-2 ATS at home inc: 9 straight
49ers are 19-4 ATS last 23 conference games
Purdy is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in his career – 11-0 SU in games he finished** (Counting Playoffs)
In games McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers 16-1 SU, 13-4 ATS.
McCaffrey has a TD in 13 consecutive games (17 total TDs).
PRIMETIME NIGHT GAMES last 2+ years
22 OVERS
44 UNDERS
(3-10 this season)
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MONDAY
GREEN BAY -1.5 @ LV RAIDERS 44.5
PRIMETIME NIGHT GAMES last 2+ years
22 OVERS
42 UNDERS
(3-8 this season)
Raiders 17-8-1 OVER HG in Vegas
Josh McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS with Denver, he’s 12-31 SU and 16-27 ATS since.
If Brian Hoyer gets the start at QB, he’s 16-25 SU inc: 12 consecutive loses
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TRENDS NOT FOR THIS WEEK
Falcons: 6-24 SU last 30 games as a dog
Falcons: 2-11 SU RG run inc: 8 straight loses
Jags: 8-16 SU & 9-15 ATS off a loss w/ Trevor Lawrence as QB
Dolph: 9-2 OVER road games run
Dolph: 8-2 ATS last 9 vs AFC East
Bill: 12-1 SU last 13 home games vs. Dolphins inc: 8 straight wins
Russell Wilson on a two+-game losing streak is 15-6 SU & 15-5-1 ATS
Russell Wilson: 2-9 SU road games
Ravens: 20-4 ATS as an underdog….2nd-best behind Pitt
Clev: 9-2 UNDER run
Browns Favs: 20-11 SU, 11-20 ATS under h/c Kevin Stefanski
Tenn: 12-3 UNDER home game run
Rams: 9-3 UNDER on the road
Rams: 2-8 SU last 10 road games
Todd Bowles: 14-37 SU, 20-28-3 ATS as an underdog. (143rd of 147 coaches last 20 years)
Bucs: 5-14-1 ATS run
Bucs: 15-7 UNDER run
Bucs: 13-31 SU last 43 games as the underdog
Bucs: 3-8 ATS vs. the Saints
Ron Rivera: 58-43-2 ATS as a Dog, inc: 22-17-1 ATS as a home dog
Phil: Jalen Hurts at Home 14-6-1 ATS
Justin Herbert: Underdog: 13-6 ATS Favorite: 16-18-1 ATS
Dak Prescott 27-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU —2nd best behind only Tom Brady.
49ers won 9 straight vs NFC West
Mahomes as a d/d fav: 22-2 SU, 10-13-1 ATS
Seattle: 4-9 ATS run
Seattle: 6-3 UNDER run
Geno Smith 4-9 ATS last 13 starts.
Four games have closed 54 or higher since start of last season, under is 5-0.
Double-digit home underdogs: 73-51 ATS last 20 years.
Cards: 10-0 ATS vs NFC East opponents
Buff: Josh Allen: 17-5 SU, 14-7-1 ATS vs. the NFC
Balt: Lamar Jackson as a 7+pt favorite: 24-5 SU inc: 16-3 SU at home & 13-16 ATS inc: 8-11 ATS at home.
Bucs: 3-9-1 ATS home game run
Bengals: 8-1 SU home game run
Colts: 8-3 ATS vs the Texans
Clev: 1-20 SU @ Pittsburgh
Dallas: 9-4 ATS as RFavs
Dolph: 6-0 ATS vs Patriots
Pats 24-2 SU inc: 15-0 SU vs. Jets
Saints: 3-8-1 ATS vs Panthers UNDER is 6-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams

49ers: 7-0-1 ATS vs. Rams

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NFL 2022/23 REGULAR SEASON TRENDS
FAVS: 179-92-1 SU 124-144-4 ATS
6pts Favs: 71-18 SU 39-50 ATS
10pt Favs: 23-3 9-17 ATS
B/B RG: 28-43 SU 33-35-2 ATS
OVERS: 117-154-1
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BEST NFL TRENDS 40-53-2
2023 SEASON OVER/UNDERS:
NFL OVERS: 16 UNDERS: 15 PUSH: 1
******

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NFL NOTES FOR 2022:
1. Last 18 teams to start 0-2…failed to make the playoffs. (Cincy/TENN/Raiders/Atlanta)
2. At least 2 teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs in 18 of 19 yrs.
3. At least 1 team finished in 1st in their division the season after finishing last in 17 of the last 19 seasons
4. At least 4 teams have made the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year before since 1990
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2021/22 FREE NFL: 35-24-3
2020/21 FREE NFL: 19-23-3
2019/20 FREE NFL: 25-26
2018/19 FREE NFL: 33-16-1
2017/18 FREE NFL: 29-18-5
2016/17 FREE NFL: 24-16-1
******
2021 NFL REGULAR SEASON TOTALS:
FAVS: 166-100-1 SU & 127-139-1 ATS (1 pick)
HM DOGS: 37-68 SU & 52-55 ATS
D/D Favs: 39-7 SU & 29-17-1 ATS
6pt Favs: 96-28-1 SU & 64-56-2 ATS
3pt Favs: 43-46 SU & 38-52 ATS
B/B Road Games: 34-35 SU & 36-33 ATS
3rd Straight RG: 3-1 SU & ATS
O/U: 126-139-2
Combo’s:
Favs/Over: 56 Dog/Over: 69
Favs/Under: 69 Dog/Under: 67
Favs/PUSH: 2 PUSH/UNDER: 1
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SB PARLAY/REVERSE COMBOS
Favorite/Over: 15 times
Favorite/Under: 12 times
Underdog/Over: 10 times
Underdog/Under: 13 times
(4 games omitted: SB 1 didn’t have a total, three games pushed on either the game or total)
FAV/OVER has it only three times since 2000.
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BIG NFL FAVS DON’T LOSE
6+pt Favorites:
2018/19: 84-23 SU & 51-54-2 ATS
2017/18: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
2016/17: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
2015/16: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
******
2020 NFL VEGAS SEASON AFTER WK #15
Home team: 109-94 SU & 84-113-6 ATS
Favs: 136-71-1 SU & 91-106-7 ATS
D/D favs: 29-6 SU & 14-20-1 ATS
6pts favs: 65-15 SU & 35-42-3 ATS
3pts favs: 37-30-1 SU & 32-32-4 ATS
B/B Road games: 23-21 SU & 25-18-1 ATS
3rd straight RG: 1-0 SU & ATS
HM DOGS: 23-48 SU & 29-39-4 ATS
Over/Unders: 99-107-1
Combos:
Favs/Over: 44 Favs/Under: 44
Favs/Push: 1 Dogs/Over: 51
Dogs/Under 59 Push/Under: 3
Push/Over: 4 Pk/OVER: 1
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2017/18 NFL VEGAS STATS REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 143-108 SU & 127-117-8 ATS (4 Lon/1 Mex)
FAVS: 181-74 SU & 134-102-9 ATS (1 game pick)
D/D FAVS: 27-4 SU & 16-17 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 70-39 SU & 50-42-6 ATS
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 33-38 SU & 34-34-3 ATS
HOME DOGS: 34-63 SU & 46-47-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 116-136-4
COMBINATIONS:
FAVS/OVERS: 53 FAVS/UNDERS: 78
DOGS/OVER: 54 DOGS/UNDER: 60
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NFL 2016/17 REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 151-100-1 SU & 119-122-11 ATS (4 gms N/A)
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 28-36-1 SU & 29-33-2 ATS
FAVS: 167-86-2 SU & 122-122-11 ATS (1gm Pick)
D/D FAVS: 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 59-38-2 SU & 52-43-4 ATS
HOME DOGS: 30-48 SU & 36-43-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-120-2
FAVS/OVERS: 65 FAVS/UNDERS: 62
DOGS/OVER: 62 DOGS/UNDER: 54
******
2015/16 REGULAR SEASON NFL
HOME TEAMS: 136-117 SU…117-130-6 ATS (3 gms London)
FAVORITES: 157-95 SU & 117-130-6 ATS (3 pickem)
10+PT FAVS: 15-5 SU & 9-11 ATS
3PT Favs or less: 46-47 SU & 38-49-6 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-53 SU & 42-41-3 ATS
OVERS: 118
UNDERS: 131
PUSH: 4
******
2014/15 NFL REGULAR SEASON
Home tms: 144-101-1 SU & 114-135-3 ATS (4 neutral)
Home dogs: 26-49 SU & 35-41-1 ATS
Favorites: 169-83-1 SU & 120-130-3 ATS
(3 pickem games)
10pt Favs: 21-2 SU & 11-12 ATS
6pt+ Favs: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 117-137-2
COMBOS
FAVS/OVERS: 54 FAVS/UNDERS: 64
DOGS/OVERS: 59 DOGS/UNDERS: 69
******
2013/14 REGULAR SEASON#’s
HOME TEAMS: 152-101-1 SU & 136-112-6 ATS
FAVORITES*: 179-75-1 SU & 132-115-8 ATS
10pts FAVS: 27-7 SU & 17-16-1 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-61 SU & 44-47-2 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-118-4
GAMES DECIDED BY 7pts or less: 123 of 256
COMBOS
FAVS/OVER: 66 FAVS/UNDER: 64
UNDERDOGS/OVER: 61 UNDERDOGS/UNDER: 54
******
NFL 2012/13 regular season
Home Teams: 126-139-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 49-46-1 ATS
Home Favs: 77-88-1 ATS

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SB tams that fail to score 21 pts in the SB are 2-22 SU & 4-19-1 ATS.
(Exception..Giants over the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII & Pats in SB 53 13-3 over Rams)

Super Bowl teams scoring at least 27pts are 27-4 SU & 24-6-1 ATS.
(Exceptions Carolina (29) vs. Pats, SF (31) vs. Balt, Atl 28 vs. Pats, Pats vs. Eagles

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2018/19 NFL PLAYOFFS

PLAYING ONLY ONE: 4-1-1
$100 BEST BETS: 4-4-1
$50 OTHER PLAYS: 1-3
$25 IF YOU MUST: 3-1
OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE DAY: 2-3
EVERY BET/EVERY PLAY: 9-6-1
$100 WIN REVERSE: 3-3 = +540
$100 PARLAYS: 3-3 = +392
$100 PROP PLAYS: 24-21-2 = +500
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