2023/24 NFL FREE PICKS: 24-26-1
SUNDAY: KANSAS CITY +3 -125 vs SF = WIN
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2023/24 NFL SEASON REGULAR SEASON TRENDS
FAVS SU: 185-83 ATS: 136-118-7
6pts Favs: 55-21 SU & 38-37-1 ATS
10pt Favs: 21-4 SU & 14-11 ATS
B/B RG: 28-43 SU & 36-32-3 ATS (Non Bye teams/situations)
3 gm RT: 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS
OVERS: 109-133
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NFL SUPER BOWL
KANSAS CITY +1.5 vs. SAN FRANSICO
KC: Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog (4-0 in post season)
KC: In Mahomes’ 13 games as a dog = 13-0 in a 6-point teaser.
KC: When the Chiefs defense allows 20+pts KC is 2-4 SU/ATS
KC: 15-6 UNDER in 2023/24
KC: UNDER 14-4 last 18 conference games
KC: 2nd half Unders 18-3
KC: 4th quarter Unders 19-2
KC: Mahomes 44-12 SU, 34-21-1 ATS on the road
KC: 18 playoff starts, Mahomes 15-3 SU
KC: 18-4-1 ATS as the underdog
KC: Pat Mahomes is 14-2 SU in the 2nd game of b/b road games for his career
When Deebo and CMC start, 49ers 20-4 SU, 15-9 ATS
49ers: In games Christian McCaffrey starts 49ers 25-6 SU, 18-13 ATS
49ers: In games Deebo Samuel starts & finishes 49ers 13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS….1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t
49ers: Under Kyle Shanahan 49ers 0-38 when trailing by 8+pts in the 4th qtr.
49ers: Kyle Shanahan 2-32 when trailing by 3+pts entering the 4th qtr.
49ers: 12-34 SU, 12-34 ATS when trailing at the half under Kyle Shanahan.
49ers: Under Kyle Shanahan, 2-33 SU when trailing by 10+pts in the 2nd half
49ers: Under Kyle Shanahan, 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS when trailing entering the 4th qtr — inc: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in 23/24
49ers: favored in every game
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H/C Andy Reid 31-7 SU & 23-15 ATS with an extra week of prep inc: 5-0 SU & ATS as a dog
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SUPER BOWL NOTES thru: 23/24 :
Team with most Total yards is 43-15
Team with most Rushing yards is 43-14 (1 game tied0
SU SB winner is 49-7-2 ATS
Score less than 20pts: 2-25 SU & 4-22-1 ATS
Score 27+pts 31-5 SU & 28-7-1 ATS
Only 16 of the 58 Super Bowls have been decided by 1 score.
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NFL 2022/23 REGULAR SEASON TRENDS
FAVS: 179-92-1 SU 124-144-4 ATS
6pts Favs: 71-18 SU 39-50 ATS
10pt Favs: 23-3 9-17 ATS
B/B RG: 28-43 SU 33-35-2 ATS
OVERS: 117-154-1
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2022/23 FREE NFL: 27-23-1
2021/22 FREE NFL: 35-24-3
2020/21 FREE NFL: 19-23-3
2019/20 FREE NFL: 25-26
2018/19 FREE NFL: 33-16-1
2017/18 FREE NFL: 29-18-5
2016/17 FREE NFL: 24-16-1
******
2021 NFL REGULAR SEASON TOTALS:
FAVS: 166-100-1 SU & 127-139-1 ATS (1 pick)
HM DOGS: 37-68 SU & 52-55 ATS
D/D Favs: 39-7 SU & 29-17-1 ATS
6pt Favs: 96-28-1 SU & 64-56-2 ATS
3pt Favs: 43-46 SU & 38-52 ATS
B/B Road Games: 34-35 SU & 36-33 ATS
3rd Straight RG: 3-1 SU & ATS
O/U: 126-139-2
Combo’s:
Favs/Over: 56 Dog/Over: 69
Favs/Under: 69 Dog/Under: 67
Favs/PUSH: 2 PUSH/UNDER: 1
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SB PARLAY/REVERSE COMBOS
Favorite/Over: 15 times
Favorite/Under: 12 times
Underdog/Over: 10 times
Underdog/Under: 13 times
(4 games omitted: SB 1 didn’t have a total, three games pushed on either the game or total)
FAV/OVER has it only three times since 2000.
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BIG NFL FAVS DON’T LOSE
6+pt Favorites:
2018/19: 84-23 SU & 51-54-2 ATS
2017/18: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
2016/17: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
2015/16: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
******
2020 NFL VEGAS SEASON AFTER WK #15
Home team: 109-94 SU & 84-113-6 ATS
Favs: 136-71-1 SU & 91-106-7 ATS
D/D favs: 29-6 SU & 14-20-1 ATS
6pts favs: 65-15 SU & 35-42-3 ATS
3pts favs: 37-30-1 SU & 32-32-4 ATS
B/B Road games: 23-21 SU & 25-18-1 ATS
3rd straight RG: 1-0 SU & ATS
HM DOGS: 23-48 SU & 29-39-4 ATS
Over/Unders: 99-107-1
Combos:
Favs/Over: 44 Favs/Under: 44
Favs/Push: 1 Dogs/Over: 51
Dogs/Under 59 Push/Under: 3
Push/Over: 4 Pk/OVER: 1
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2017/18 NFL VEGAS STATS REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 143-108 SU & 127-117-8 ATS (4 Lon/1 Mex)
FAVS: 181-74 SU & 134-102-9 ATS (1 game pick)
D/D FAVS: 27-4 SU & 16-17 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 70-39 SU & 50-42-6 ATS
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 33-38 SU & 34-34-3 ATS
HOME DOGS: 34-63 SU & 46-47-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 116-136-4
COMBINATIONS:
FAVS/OVERS: 53 FAVS/UNDERS: 78
DOGS/OVER: 54 DOGS/UNDER: 60
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NFL 2016/17 REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 151-100-1 SU & 119-122-11 ATS (4 gms N/A)
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 28-36-1 SU & 29-33-2 ATS
FAVS: 167-86-2 SU & 122-122-11 ATS (1gm Pick)
D/D FAVS: 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 59-38-2 SU & 52-43-4 ATS
HOME DOGS: 30-48 SU & 36-43-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-120-2
FAVS/OVERS: 65 FAVS/UNDERS: 62
DOGS/OVER: 62 DOGS/UNDER: 54
******
2015/16 REGULAR SEASON NFL
HOME TEAMS: 136-117 SU…117-130-6 ATS (3 gms London)
FAVORITES: 157-95 SU & 117-130-6 ATS (3 pickem)
10+PT FAVS: 15-5 SU & 9-11 ATS
3PT Favs or less: 46-47 SU & 38-49-6 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-53 SU & 42-41-3 ATS
OVERS: 118
UNDERS: 131
PUSH: 4
******
2014/15 NFL REGULAR SEASON
Home tms: 144-101-1 SU & 114-135-3 ATS (4 neutral)
Home dogs: 26-49 SU & 35-41-1 ATS
Favorites: 169-83-1 SU & 120-130-3 ATS
(3 pickem games)
10pt Favs: 21-2 SU & 11-12 ATS
6pt+ Favs: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 117-137-2
COMBOS
FAVS/OVERS: 54 FAVS/UNDERS: 64
DOGS/OVERS: 59 DOGS/UNDERS: 69
******
2013/14 REGULAR SEASON#’s
HOME TEAMS: 152-101-1 SU & 136-112-6 ATS
FAVORITES*: 179-75-1 SU & 132-115-8 ATS
10pts FAVS: 27-7 SU & 17-16-1 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-61 SU & 44-47-2 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-118-4
GAMES DECIDED BY 7pts or less: 123 of 256
COMBOS
FAVS/OVER: 66 FAVS/UNDER: 64
UNDERDOGS/OVER: 61 UNDERDOGS/UNDER: 54
******
NFL 2012/13 regular season
Home Teams: 126-139-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 49-46-1 ATS
Home Favs: 77-88-1 ATS
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SB tams that fail to score 21 pts in the SB are 2-22 SU & 4-19-1 ATS.
(Exception..Giants over the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII & Pats in SB 53 13-3 over Rams)
Super Bowl teams scoring at least 27pts are 27-4 SU & 24-6-1 ATS.
(Exceptions Carolina (29) vs. Pats, SF (31) vs. Balt, Atl 28 vs. Pats, Pats vs. Eagles
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2018/19 NFL PLAYOFFS
PLAYING ONLY ONE: 4-1-1
$100 BEST BETS: 4-4-1
$50 OTHER PLAYS: 1-3
$25 IF YOU MUST: 3-1
OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE DAY: 2-3
EVERY BET/EVERY PLAY: 9-6-1
$100 WIN REVERSE: 3-3 = +540
$100 PARLAYS: 3-3 = +392
$100 PROP PLAYS: 24-21-2 = +500
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COACHES FIRED SYSTEM: 17-21 straight up and 22-16 ATS since 2003
Thursday home teams: 33-36 SU…27-42 ATS
NFL: Teams playing on road on short rest, after a SU win as a dog: 31-72 SU
NFL Home dogs 7+pts: 60-40-2 ATS since 2020 inc: 22-13-2 ATS since last year.
PST teams 50-33-3 ATS playing on East Coast since 2019.
AFC North division game Dogs: 69-48-3 ATS last decade
When two teams are off a bye…favorite 33-22 SU last 20 years
When both teams are on 8+days rest, under 106-48-1 since 2018 inc: 30-6 this season
37 H/C in season Firings since 2003…Those teams 17-20 SU & 21-16 ATS in 1st game afterwards
International Games: UNDER 24-20
International Games: Favs 33-10-1 SU & 29-15 ATS
Totals of 50+ are 30-14 to under last 2 years inc: 13-4 this year
WILDCARD ROUND TRENDS
54-38 UNDER last 21 season (3-3 this year)
CONFERENCE TITLE ROUND GAME TRENDS:
Winner 39-7 ATS last 44 gms (1-1 2023/24)
Home teams: 14-4 SU & 11-7 ATS last 18 AFC Title games & 15-5 SU & 10-10 ATS last 20 NFC games
Home teams Overall: 17-5 SU & 13-9 ATS lasts 11 years
OVER is 36-27-1 (last 13 AFC games 9-4 Under…NFC 15-7-1 Over)
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Bears: Fields 10-28 SU…14-23-1 ATS his career.
Bears: 8-21-1 ATS vs. NFC North teams inc: 4-11 SU 5-10 ATS w/ Fields at QB
Bengals: Burrow 20-5 SU & 20-4-1 ATS last 25 vs. non-divisional opponents.
Bengals: Joe Burrow UNDER 28-20-1
Bengals: Joe Burrow 23-10 SU as a fav inc: 12-5 last 17
Bengals: Joe Burrow’s 14-6-1 ATS after a SU loss
BILLS: Josh Allen 78 INT = most in NFL + 57 fumbles = most in NFL.
Bills: Josh Allen 68 wins inc:. 50 by 7+pts
Bills: As a home favorite of 7+p, Allen is 22-2 SU
Bills: Allen 31-5 SU as a fav of 7+ overall
Bills: Allen vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG(KC): 20-7-1 ATS
Bills: 29-7 SU last 36 home games
Browns: DeSean Watson 4-12 SU as a dog 16 times
Browns 9-0 OVER on road this year*
Browns: allowed 30pts in 9 RGs
Browns: Post Season: Joe Flacco 10-6 w/ 25 TD passes inc: 7 road wins
Last 9 playoff games, Flacco has at least 2 TD passes
Browns: Kevin Stefanski Dog: 10-22 SU & 16-14-1 ATS
Browns: Joe Flacco SU/ATS in Cleveland…11-2 SU…9-2-2 ATS
Bucs: 8-1 ATS on road
Bucs: 10-8 SU, 12-6 ATS inc: 6-6 SU and 9-3 ATS as underdogs
Bucs: Baker Mayfield is 27-21 ATS as an underdog and 14-26-1 ATS as a favorite.
Cards: Kyler Murray UNDERDOG: 25-15-2 ATS
Cards: 2-13 ATS vs. NFC West
Chargers 0-6 SU in games decided by 3 pts or fewer this season (NFL record is 7 by 1994 Oilers)
Chargers: Justin Herbert: Underdog: 13-9 ATS Favorite: 19-20-1 ATS
Chargers: Justin Herbert: When Defense allows 27+pts…6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
Chargers: Justin Herbert: When LAC allows 27pts or less…24-7 SU, 23-6-1 ATS
Chiefs: Mahomes 22-3 SU on the road as a 5+pt favorite
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes 37-22-1 Under at home inc: 17-3 last two seasons
Chiefs: Mahomes: Home 27-30-1 ATS
Chiefs: Mahomes after a SU loss: 19-4 SU, 12-10-1 ATS
Colts: Minshew vs winning teams: 2-9 SU…4-7 ATS
Cowboys: Dak Prescott double-digit fav: 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS.
Cowboys: Dak Prescott 37-10 SU, 32-13-2 ATS vs. losing teams
Cowboys: Dak Prescott: 25-4 SU, 19-9-1 ATS as a 6+pt favorite at home
Cowboys: Dak Prescott 37-8 SU & 31-13-1 ATS as a favorite of 6+pts in his career
Cowboys: Dak Prescott 23-27 SU…18-32 ATS vs. winning teams = 261st of 264 QBs in the last 20 years.
Cowboys: 6-13 ATS after winning by 20+pts inc: 3-12 ATS last 15
Cowboys: 12-4 ATS at home.
Cowboys: H/C MIKE MCCARTHY 11-11 postseason record
Dolphins: haven’t won the AFC East in 15 seasons
Dolphins: 5-14 SU vs. winning teams …19-8 SU vs. losing teams since 2021
Dolphins: When Tua faces an opposing offense averaging 21 PPG or less…15-2 SU in his last 17 in this spot
Dolphins: 2-13 SU as a road dog
Dolphins: Tua Tags 2-10 SU & 3-8-1 ATS on road vs. winning teams
Dolphins: Tua Tags 13-4 SU vs SB winning head coaches
Dolphins: Tua Tags 13-1 SU…10-4 ATS as a favorite of over 4+pts
Dolphins: Tua Tags d/d favorite 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS
Eagles: QB Jalen Hurts Road/Neutral: 10-18-1 ATS = 96th of 98 QBs since 2020
Falcons 20-32-1 ATS vs. non-NFC South divisions since 2019 = 2nd-worst mark in the NFL
Falcons: All 17 games spread of less than 4 points
Falcons 8-20 ATS run
Falcons 7-21 ATS…inc: 5-12 ATS this year = 3rd worst record in the NFL
Falcons: UNDER 15-7 run
Falcons: 13-3 UNDER as a Dog last 2 seasons
Giants: UNDER 45-22-2 inc: 24-8-1 at home
Jags: 10-3 ATS vs Winning teams
Jags: Lawrence 8-16 ATS vs. losing teams
Jets: H/C Robert Saleh 4-14 SU, 7-11 ATS vs. AFC East
Jets: h/c Robert Saleh as home dog: 7-14 SU…9-12 ATS
Jets: 1-9 SU on the road vs. AFC East
Jets: 25-42-4 ATS on road since 2015
Lions: Goff 22-13 ATS at home since 2020
Lions: Jared Goff 16-9 ATS off a loss w/ the Lions
Lions: Covered 7 straight off a loss + 13-5 ATS off a loss last 18 loses
Lions: Jared Goff most profitable QB ATS last 5 years: 53-29-1 ATS
Lions: Jared Goff 20-13 ATS RG since 2020
Lions: Jared Goff: 16-33 SU, 29-21 ATS as a dog
Lions: 12-3 ATS RG run
Lions: 9-1 ATS underdog run
Lions: 18-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+ under Dam Campbell
Lions: 37-17 ATS last 3 seasons inc: 26-11 last 37 games – best mark in the NFL
Lions: Jared Goff Indoors: 36-17 ATS inc: 26-9 ATS past 3 seasons (This season: 14 games, 28 pass TD, 8 INT, 71% comp)
Lions: Jared Goff Outdoor: 35-35-2 ATS
Lions: 3-17 3Q ATS this season — worst in NFL
Lions: 11-1 OVER 3rd Qtr last 12 games
Packers: LaFleur 18-2 SU, 11-9 ATS in December games.
Packers: LaFleur 51-37 ATS as Packers H/C inc: 28-16 ATS at home
Packers: 10-0…15-1 vs. Chicago
Packers: LaFleur 22-10 ATS as a dog inc: 10-5 with Jordan Love
Packers: LaFleur 52-37 ATS as Packers H/C inc: 24-21 on the road
Panthers: 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS on the road
Panthers/Arizona listed as underdogs in all of their games.
Panthers didn’t run one play in which they’re leading in the 4th qtr.
Panthers: Since firing Frank Reich SU, ATS: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS vs. 1-10 SU, 2-8-1 ATS w/ Reich
Panthers: Teams after getting shutout are 30-15-3 ATS since 2015.
Pats: 17-25 SU & 15-25-2 ATS vs. winning teams
Pats: Belichick is 1-9 SU as home dog since 2021.
Pats: Since 2019, 17-25 SU, 16-23-3 ATS vs. winning teams
Pats: Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 29-39 SU, 29-37-2 ATS since 2020.
Pats: Team total under 12-5
Pats: 23-3….18-2 vs. NY Jets
Pats: 6-17 SU, 6-16-1 ATS last 23 games
Raiders: Antonio Pierce: 5-4 SU…6-2-1 ATS
Rams: 22-12 UNDER at home run
Rams: Matt Stafford 32-68 SU…38-60-2 ATS vs. winning teams – least profitable QB SU and ATS last 20 years inc: 10-11 SU and 9-12 ATS with Rams
Ravens: 20-5 ATS as an underdog
Ravens: Lamar Jackson as 7+pt favorite: 26-5 SU…(17-3 SU at home…9-2 SU on road)
Ravens: H/C John Harbaugh 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog
Ravens: 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS last 11 games as the favorite
Ravens: Lamar Jackson as Playoff home Favs: 2-4 SU & ATS (5-1 UNDER)
Ravens: Lamar Jackson 29-11 SU & 16-24 ATS as home fav. (217 QBs last 20 years = 211th ATS as a HFav)
Ravens: Lamar Jackson 23-14 SU & 23-14 ATS vs winning teams
Ravens: 11-5-3 first qtr $$ line…20-11-6 last 2 seasons
Ravens: UNDER 8-0-1 as home playoff favs since 1995
Saints: Dennis Allen is 24-46 SU… 27-41-2 ATS
Saints: Dennis Allen-coached teams 5-16-2 ATS off a win
Saints: Dennis Allen 16-22-1 ATS vs. losing teams
Saints: Dennis Allen 7-14-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents
Saints: Dennis Allen 23-46 SU & 26-41-2 ATS–3rd worst mark last 20 years
Saints: Derek Carr as Fav: 21-37-2 ATS & Underdog: 52-46-1 ATS
Saints: Derek Carr 11-26-2 ATS favored by 3+pts inc: 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games
Saints: 8-15 ATS at home since 2021
Saints: 11-12 SU at home last 3 seasons – only HOU, ARI, CHI have fewer home wins
Saints: 10-6 UNDER this year…19-7 run
SHawks: 72-30 SU at home w Russ and Geno
SHawks: Carroll 57-40-3 ATS as an underdog
Shawks: After a home loss: 24-11-1 ATS last 20 years
Steelers: 15-6-1 ATS off a bye week since 2018, making him the best coach in the NFL ATS in that span
Steelers vs. Ravens: Underdog is 23-6-3 ATS
Steelers: Road favs 32-40-2 ATS
Steelers: Mike Tomlin road Unders 83-62-1 = best of any coach last 20 years
Pitt: Mason Rudolph 13 career starts…multiple TD passes 6 times.
Pitt: Kenny Pickett 24 career starts…multiple TD passes 1 time.
Pitt: Mike Tomlin is 20-15 SU, 18-14-3 ATS vs. John Harbaugh…hen favorite: 6-12-1 ATS + underdog: 12-2-2 ATS
Steelers-Ravens last 18 games: 15 were 7 points or less.
Pitt/Tomlin: 18 consecutive non-losing seasons
Titans: Vrabel as a home dog: 13-10 SU, 13-9-1 ATS
Titans: 35 straight games without scoring 30pts.
Titans: Vrabel as a dog: 26-29 SU, 30-24-1 ATS – inc: 26-16-2 ATS w/ a spread +3+
Wash: Under @ home: 20-12-1 since 2020
Wash: 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS.