2026/27 NFL REGULAR SEASON: 3-2
THURS:
.
.
NFL RECAP:
HOME TEAMS: 15-14 SU + 14-14-1 ATS (Not counting International gms)
FAVS: 22-9 SU + 17-10-1 ATS
ROAD FAVS: 7-1 SU + 5-3 ATS
6pt FAVS: 7-4 SU + 4-7 ATS
10pt FAVS: 1-0 SU & ATS
B/B RG: 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS
3 GM RG:
O/U: 13-17
FAV/OVER: 8 FAV/UNDER: 6
DOG/OVER: 5 DOG/UNDER: 10
x x PUSH/UNDER: 1
$$$$$
.
.
WEEK #3
THURSDAY
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY -6 43.5
ATL: 62-87-1 ATS in regular season
ATL: 2-17 when trailing by 4+pts
ATL: 13-21 SU outdoors since 2020
ATL: 29-45-1 ATS vs. non-NFC South 2019
GB: H/C Matt LaFleur 66-55-1 ATS inc: 40-38-1 as a fav
GB: 37-16-1 SU vs. losing teams
GB: H/C Matt LaFleur 36-25 ATS at home
GB: Home teams on Thursday: 56-67-1 ATS since 2019 inc: 35-45-1 ATS as favs (1-0 TYr)
$
$
SUNDAY
LA CHARGERS @ BUFFALO -7 50.5
BUF: Allen facing teams allowing 20+PPG: 40-50-4 ATS
BUF: as 4+pt favs 18-27-1 ATS
BUF: 47-9 SU home games
BUF: 26-2 when leading entering 4th Qtr.
BUF: Josh Allen 97 wins inc: 69 by 7+pts
BUF: 28-11 Team total OVER
BUF: When teams score 21+pts vs Bills: Buffalo 12-29 ATS since 2022
LAC: Justin Herbert 3+pts dog: 13-7-1 ATS
LAC: Justin Herbert 28-22 ATS on road
LAC: PST teams playing on East Coast since 2019: 59-36-4 ATS
LAC: Justin Herbert 13-9 ATS games played in EST
LAC: Jim Harbaugh after a loss: 18-14 SU + 15-15-2 ATS
LAC: Justin Herbert 15-26 SU vs. winning teams
LAC: Jim Harbaugh: 68-39-1 SU + 60-45-3 ATS
LAC: Herbert 42-24 UNDER
LAC: 3-11 SU in games decided by 3pts or fewer
LAC: Justin Herbert: Underdog: 17-12-1 ATS & Fav: 33-33-1 ATS
LAC: Justin Herbert 50-49 SU + 51-46-2 ATS (23-25 ATS @ Hm + 28-21 ATS Rd)
LAC: Justin Herbert: 24pts
When his defense allows 24 pts or LESS: 43-13 SU & 41-13-2 ATS
When his defense allows 24 pts or MORE: 8-35 SU & 10-33 ATS
$
$
CAROLINA -2.5 @ CLEVELAND 42.5
CAR: 1-12 SU ATS as favorite
CAR: 7-18 SU + 8-17 ATS RG’s
CAR: Bryce Young 15-32 SU (5 vs Falcons)
CAR: Bryce Young 4-16 SU + 9-12 ATS on road (4-1 run)
CAR: Bryce Young 18-29 ATS 1st half
CAR: 2-71 in games trailing by 9+pts (Won 2x in 2025)
CLE: 17-26 ATS after a win
CLE: 13-25 ATS last 38 games
CLE: 25-11 Team Total under
CLE: 17-43 SU + 26-32-1 ATS
CLE: 31-37-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North teams
CLE: DeShaun Watson 11-11 SU as a Brown (28-25 as Texan)
CLE: Deshaun Watson 36-39-2 ATS (14-22-2 ATS as fav + 22-17 ATS as Dog)
CLE: Worst in NFL 142-264-1 since 2001 (Browns could go undefeated for 7 straight seasons—and be 3 gms under .500)
$
$
NY JETS @ DETROIT -6.5 47.5
NYJ: Geno Smith 14-19-4 ATS after a win
NYJ: 36-51-1 ATS
NYJ: 15 year playoff draught longest active playoff drought
NYJ 2025
0 INTs in 18 straight games
0 400 yard receivers in 2026
0 Jet QBs have thrown for 10 TDs for the 5th time in 6 years.
0 Playoff appearances since 2010
4 defensive turnovers in 2026 vs. 1 this season
First team since 1972 to lose by 23+pts in 5 straight games
NYJ: 34-51-4 ATS on road since 2015
DET: Jared Goff 31-24 ATS at home since 2020
DET: 21-9 Over @ hm w/ O/U less than 50pts
DET: Goff/Campbell 20-13-1 SU & 24-10 ATS off a SU loss inc: 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS
DET: Jared Goff 73-45-1 ATS
DET: 54-30-1 ATS run inc: 0-2 TYr
DET: Jared Goff ATS Indoor: 45-23-1 ATS vs. Outdoors: 43-38-2 ATS
DET: won 33 straight when leading entering the 4th Qtr**
DET: 21-8-1 ATS game after failing to cover inc: 0-1 Tyr
DET: Dan Campbell w/ Ben Johnson: 36–15 w/out Ben Johnson: 13–22–1
$
$
HOUSTON -3 @ INDIANAPOLIS 42.5pts
HOU: 25-14 Under run
HOU: 17-2 Under off an ATS loss last 3 years
HOU: CJ Stroud Under 33-20-1
HOU: CJ Stroud 12-15 ATS as fav + 14-11 ATS as Dog
IND: Teams off OT games: 12-20 SU +12-20 ATS (1-1 SU + ATS TYr)
IND: Daniel Jones UNDER 27-14-1 @ home
IND: Lost 9 straight
IND: 23-15 ATS in Sept, Oct + Nov under h/c Shane Steichen
$
$
KANSAS CITY -11.5 @ MIAMI 45.5pts
KC: Teams off OT games: 12-20 SU +12-20 ATS (1-1 SU + ATS TYr)
KC: Mahomes 46-53-2 ATS as favs 3.5+Pts. (Other games 25-8-1 ATS)
KC: Favs 6+pts 11-0 SU + 3-7-1 ATS
KC: UNDER 30-11 AFC games
KC: Mahomes: 15-2 SU
KC: 11-20 ATS
KC: 68-9 when leading after 1st qtr inc: 33-2
KC: 24-14 SU + 14-23-1 ATS
KC: 41-19 UNDER
KC: 4th quarter Unders 41-17
KC: 22-18 SU when trailing at half since 2020. No team has a win % above 40%
KC: 14-5 Under w/ total 50+pts**
KC: Mahomes 51-18 SU + 39-28-2 ATS RG
KC: Mahomes 25-32-3 ATS as favs 7+pts
KC: Since 2020, Mahomes 38-2 SU & 15-24-1 ATS as a 7.5+ Fav
KC: Favorite 10+pts, Mahomes 11-15 ATS
KC: Mahomes 25-3 SU on the road as a 5+pt favorite
MIA: haven’t won the AFC East in 17 seasons
MIA: 47-31-3 ATS since 2016 at home
MIA: haven’t won playoff game since 2000 – 3rd-longest 4 major US sports.
MIA: Outscored in 3rd Qtr: 31-7 (140-27 LYr)
MIA: 7-23 SU + 11-19 ATS vs. winning teams (29-15 vs. losing teams)
$
$
TENNESSEE @ NY GIANTS -3 39.5pts
TENN: 19-40-2 ATS
TENN: 13-32-1 ATS run inc: 8-11
TENN: 2-17 SU + 5-14 ATS at hm (Worst in NFL)
TENN: 1-12 ATS after an ATS win
NYG: John Harbaugh: 25-14 ATS after an ATS loss last 5 seasons
NYG: 31-15-1 UNDER at home
NYG: UNDER 62-39-2 run BUT 12-7 OVER run
NYG: 6-24 SU + 11-18-1 ATS streak
NYG: 45-103 last 8+yrs = worst mark in NFL
$
$
CINCINNATI -3.5 @ PITTSBURGH 42.5pts
CIN: 9-6 when scoring 30+pts. Rest of NFL 149-17**
CIN: 3-4 when scoring 35+pts. Rest of NFL 84-6**
CIN: Joe Burrow 49-31-1 ATS inc: 45-25-1 SU + 46-24-1 ATS gm 3 on
PITT: 21-16 SU + 24-10-3 ATS as home dog
PITT: 26-12-1 ATS vs. Bengals (most profitable opponent ATS)
PITT: Division dog: 24-18 SU & 29-11-2 ATS
PITT: Rodgers 60-37 ATS in Division games
PITT: 45-19 SU + 42-21 ATS one-score games since 2020…best in NFL
PITT: 41-31-1 ATS since Roethlisberger retired
PITT: 14-24 1st qtr spread
PITT: 17-3 OVER 4th Qtr
PITT: 72 straight games scoring 7pts or less in the 1st QTr
$
$
SEATTLE -7 @ WASHINGTON 40.5pts
SEA: 19-2 SU on road
SEA: 12-0 SU run
SEA: 18-3 SU + 16-5 ATS
SEA: H/C Mike Macdonald 26-10 SU + 20-15-1 ATS
SEA: 30 straight gms w/out allowing 100-yard rusher – (James Cook Week 8 – 2024)
SEA: 20-8-2 ATS playing in EST since 2018
SEA: won 9 straight 1:0pm ET start games
SEA: PST teams playing on East Coast since 2019: 64-35-4 ATS
WASH: Dan Quinn 7-5 ATS as home dogs
WASH: 23-15 OVER
$
$
NEW ENGLAND @ JACKSONVILLE -3 45.5pts
NE: 7-33 SU + 8-31-1 ATS when trailing by 7+pts
NE: 18-5 SU + 16-5 ATS
NE: OVER 21-13 w/ Drake Maye @ QB
NE: 20-3 1st Half ATS
JACK: Hasn’t allowed a 75+yd rusher in 19 straight games
JACK: Trevor Lawrence: 42-39 ATS inc: 16-7
JACK: Trevor Lawrence 42-39 UNDER
JACK: Trevor Lawrence 15-25 SU + 19-21 ATS on road
JACK: 14-6 Over Team Total
$
$
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -8.5 47.5pts
ARI: only team to be listed as a preseason 2026 dog in every game
SF: 6-14 ATS off a win (worst in NFL)
SF: Brock Purdy 19-9 SU @ Hm
SF: 12-10 SU + 7-15 ATS home game run
SF: Brock Purdy 24-17 ATS when favored by 4+pts
SF: 9-13 SU + 6-16 ATS after a win
SF: Shanahan 9-17-1 ATS @ hm vs. NFC West
SF: Since 2020 13 losses when leading by 10+pts = most in NFL
SF: 12-25 ATS 2nd half (worst in NFL)
SF: 11-0 SU run when leading @ the half
SF: 14-23 3rd qtr ATS
SF: Under Kyle Shanahan 49ers 0-49 when trailing by 8+pts in the 4th qtr.
SF: Kyle Shanahan 4-46 when trailing by 3+pts entering the 4th qtr.
SF: 14-46 SU & ATS when trailing at the half under Kyle Shanahan
$
$
MINNESOTA -1.5 @ TAMPA BAY 42.5pts
MIN: 31-13 SU one-score games under Kevin O’Connell
MINN: Kyler Murray 5-36 SU down 10+pts since 2021
MINN: Kyler Murray 7-26 ATS 1st half
MINN: Kyler Murray 15-21 ATS as a favorite
TB: 20+pts 25 straight hm games snapped last week vs. Cleveland
TB: 0-11 ATS run ties longest run in NFL history (1983-84 Oilers 11 gms)
TB: Baker Mayfield off a loss: 16-12 ATS
TB: Baker Mayfield 28-28 ATS as a Buc
TB: 22-14 OVER
TB: Baker Mayfield 127 turnovers (Most in NFL since 2018) inc: 4 TYr
TB: Baker Mayfield 22-38-1 ATS @ hm (worst of 134 QBs**)
$
$
BALTIMORE -3.5 vs. DALLAS 52.5pts (Brazil)
BALT: Lamar Jackson 25-4 SU + 15-14 ATS vs. NFC teams*
BALT: Lamar Jackson fav by 3+pts: 28-38 ATS
BALT: 32-20 OVER Team total last 2 years
BALT: 31-12 SU + 26-17 ATS as a fav
BALT: LJ 22-8 SU after a loss
DAL: 17-24 ATS run inc: 1-6
DAL: 10-17 ATS run as dogs
DAL: Dak Prescott 41-52-2 ATS vs. everyone but NFC East (31-14 ATS vs. NFCE)
DAL: 17-2 OVER 1st half**
DAL: Dak Prescott 34-20-1 SU & 30-24-1 ATS
$
$
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ORLEANS -3 43.5pts
LV: Kirk Cousins won 6 straight
LV: Since Vegas: Road 19-32 SU + 22-29 ATS + Home 22-29 SU + 28-22-1 ATS
LV: Kirk Cousins off B/B SU/ATS wins 11-13-1 ATS inc: 5-11-1 ATS since 2017
NO: 15-24 SU @ home last 3 seasons
NO: 27-41 ATS @ hm since 2018 (34-22-1 ATS away)
NO: 12-22-2 ATS off a win
NO: on a 8-0 ATS run
NO: 6-5 SU + 9-2 ATS Tyler Shough starts
NO: 44-26 UNDER run inc: 12-3
NO: 2-18 ATS 1st Qtr** (outscored 130-29)
NO: 15-4 ATS 2nd half
NO: 3-29 SU trailing entering the 4th qtr
$
$
SUNDAY NIGHT:
LA RAMS -2.5 @ DENVER 45.5pts
LAR: 39-12 SU as favs vs 9-20 SU as Dogs
LAR: Matt Stafford 45-73 SU + 49-67-2 ATS vs. winning teams inc: 22-15 SU + 19-18 ATS w/LA
LAR: 20-8 SU + 19-9 ATS run
LAR: Sean McVay 25-5 SU as favorite vs AFC inc: 15-2 on road
LAR: RF’s 39-10 SU + 28-21 ATS
DEN: Sean Payton 61-42-2 ATS as an underdog
DEN: Sean Payton 12-11 SU as home underdog his career
DEN: UNDER 56-40-1 @ Hm inc: 25-21 last 4 years
DEN: 22-16 ATS home games
DEN: Trailed in 19 of last 21 games
DEN: 23-14 ATS
DEN: Sean Payton teams 16-6 SU + 18-4 ATS after scoring 10 pts or less previous game
DEN: Bo Nix Nix 33-4 in 6pt teasers
DEN: Bo Nix 13-7 ATS as fav + 8-8 ATS as Dog
DEN: Sunday night non-division dogs of 6+pts are 62-39-1 ATS
MONDAY NIGHT
PHILADELPHIA -4.5 @ CHICAGO 41.5pts
CHI: 10-28 SU vs. NFC North inc: 4-10 w/ Caleb Williams
CHI: Best TO differential in 2025
CHI: 6-33 trailing entering the 4th qtr
CHI: 15-6 OVER team total run
CHI: 13-5 as favs vs. NFC + 7-36 SU as Dogs*
PHI: Jalen Hurts 15-19-1 ATS as Road Fav
PHI: Jalen Hurt 49-39-2 ATS career
PHI: Jalen Hurts Road: 30-16 SU + 21-22-1 ATS + 28-18 UNDER
PHI: 28-8 SU run
PHI: 123-62-1 SU OL Lane Johnson plays + 17-29 SU when he doesn’t
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
ARI: 4-21 SU after facing 49ers
ATL: Tua Tags 16-21-1 ATS RG
ATL: Tua 0-6 SU + 1-5 ATS w/ Temps as 40 or below
ATL: Tua 1-9 SU as underdog in night primetime games
ATL: Tua Tags d/d favorite 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS
ATL: Tua Tags 17-1 SU & 13-5 ATS as a 4+pt favorite
ATL: Tua Tags 27-12 SU & 23-16 ATS vs. losing teams
ATL: Tua Tags 28-11 @ Hm & 25-14 ATS
ATL: 14-24-1 ATS after a win
ATL: H/C Kevin Stefanski off extended rest: 6-12 ATS = worst in NFL
ATL: Tua Tags 14-23 SU +; 16-20-1 ATS on road inc: 2-16 SU + 5-12-1 ATS vs winning teams + 10-6 SU + 8-8 ATS vs. losing teams
ATL: Tua vs offense avg 21 PPG or less: 22-5 SU last 27
ATL: Tua Tags 13-6 SU vs SB winning head coaches
BALT: 2-9 ATS as non Division 7+pt HF’s
BALT: Lamar Jackson 7+pt fav: 36-9 SU
BALT: Lamar Jackson 38-17 SU + 23-32 ATS as home fav.
BALT: Lamar Jackson as Playoff home Favs: 2-4 SU + ATS (5-1 UNDER)
BALT: UNDER 8-0-1 as home playoff favs since 1995
BALT: Lamar Jackson d/d fav: 17-1 SU & 11-7 ATS
BALT: 21-9 ATS as an underdog
BALT: Lamar Jackson 8-12 ATS at home vs. AFC North teams
BALT: Lamar Jackson 3pts favs or less or dog 27-11 ATS reg. season
BALT: Lamar Jackson 21-9 SU at night
BALT: Lamar Jackson 3-6 SU + 2-7 ATS vs. Pitt
BUF: 20-7 ATS vs. winning teams
BUF: Josh Allen 25-15 SU + 19-21 ATS in Night game
BUF: Josh Allen 6-9 ATS in post season
BUF: 1-9 RD Playoffs inc: 1-5 SU + ATS w/ Josh Allen**
BUF: 16-3 SU vs. Miami
BUF: Josh Allen has never won b/b games as an underdog (0-16)
BUF: As a home favorite of 7+p, Allen 27-3 SU
BUF: Josh Allen off d/d loss: 7-3 SU/ATS next game**
BUF: After losing as 7+pts favs 82-57-3 ATS since 2015 inc: 23-14 ATS last 3 seasons
BUF: Josh Allen: 29-4 SU as 8.5+pt fav
BUF: Allen 38-7 SU as 7+pt fav
BUF: as double-digit favs: 1-12 ATS
BUF: Josh Allen 26-7 SU + 25-7-1 ATS vs. D’s allowing 20pts or less
CAR: 10-4 ATS vs. AFC West teams
CAR: 13-5 OVER HG run
CAR: 12-0 ATS after SU loss
CHI: 2-10 SU + 4-7-1 ATS after facing GB
CIN: Joe Burrow 20-4 ATS as 3+pt dogs. (best in the Super Bowl era)
CIN: 23-16-2 ATS as dogs
CIN: Joe Burrow 14-19-1 SU & 22-12 ATS as dog inc: 11-12-1 SU & 20-4 ATS as 3+pt dog
CIN: Joe Burrow 30-10 SU & 31-8-1 ATS run vs. non-divisional teams
CIN: Joe Burrow’s 20-10-1 ATS after a loss
CIN: Joe Burrow 8-1 ATS vs. Mahomes, Josh Allen + Tom Brady
CIN: 15-4 ATS vs. AFC West
CIN: Joe Burrow 8-6 SU + 5-9 ATS as 7+pt Favs
CIN: Joe Burrow Dec. or later: 20-7 SU + 18-9 ATS
CIN: Joe Burrow 15-7-1 SU vs NFC inc: 13-2 run
CIN: 15-5 OVER @ Hm
CLE: 3-21 in the 2nd of b/b road games* (1-0 TYr)
CLE: 3-16 SU + 4-15 ATS on road
CLE: 20-11 OVER RG run
CLE: DeShaun Watson 1-9 SU + 6-4 ATS as 6pts+ dogs*
CLE: Browns traveled to MST or PST 5-23 SU inc: 0-9 SU since 2019…2-20 SU last 22
CLE: 14-22 ATS vs. AFC North
CLE: 2-9 ATS last 10 AFC North road games
CLE: 6-1 @ Hm vs. Pitt (Lost 22 straight @ Pitt)
CLE: 13-7 SU @ Hm vs. winning teams since 2020 (5-18 on road)
CLE: 18-27 ATS as favs inc: 8-16 ATS vs losing teams w/ Kevin Stefanski
CLE: Lost 22 straight games in Pittsburgh. (Last win Oct/2003 w/ Tim Couch)**
DAL: Dak Prescott 21-1 SU & 17-5 ATS as a home favs vs. NFC East.
DAL: Dak Prescott 12-3 ATS vs. Wash inc: 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home
DAL: Dak Prescott: 23-2 SU + 19-6 ATS @ Hm vs. NFC East inc: 20 straight SU wins
DAL: 19-8 Over at home
DAL: Dak Prescott 42-16 SU, 35-21-2 ATS vs. losing teams
DAL: Dak Prescott 26-8 @ night inc: 12-6 as dog
DAL: 16-3 SU + 13-6 ATS vs. NYG
DAL: Dak Prescott d/digit fav: 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS.
DAL: 3-19 SU as a dog of 7+pts
DAL: Home Dogs 43-50-4 ATS
DAL: Dak Prescott: 25-6 SU + 19-11-1 ATS as 6+pt HFav
DAL: Dak Prescott 37-10 SU +; 31-15-1 ATS as 6+pt fav
DAL: Dak Prescott 26-34-1 SU + 23-38 ATS vs. winning teams
DEN: 10-0 SU + 9-1 ATS after facing KC in regular season
DEN: Bo Nix 19-2 SU + 13-8 ATS as favs
DEN: Sean Payton 86-68-3 ATS on road inc: 36-24-1 ATS run
DEN: 18-6 SU at home in Denver in the playoffs.
DEN: Playoff 4+pts HD’s: 9-1 ATS last 50 years
DEN: Sean Payton dog of +7pts: 10-5 ATS
DET: 5-17 SU + 8-14 ATS last 22 on Thanksgiving
DET: Goff as d/d fav: 12-2 SU + 8-6 ATS
DET: Since 2018, Goff 28-15-1 ATS vs. division teams
DET: Jared Goff 7-2 SU + 8-1 ATS vs. Minny as a Lion
DET: Jared Goff 31-18 ATS RG since 2020
DET: Jared Goff: 19-37 SU + 32-25 ATS as a dog
DET: 23-7 ATS RG
DET: Games starting at 4pm or later: 18-5 SU under Dan Campbell
DET: 20-6 ATS as an underdog of 4+ under Dam Campbell
GB: 4-12-1 ATS after a loss w/ Jordan Love
GB: 3-11 ATS as 3+pt road favs last 5 seasons
GB: 14-8-1 ATS after allowing 30+pts under Matt LaFleur
GB: H/C Matt LaFleur 34-24 ATS vs. winning teams
GB: Jordan Love 4-5 ATS @ Hm vs. NFC North
GB: 8-14-1 ATS as 7+pt favs inc: 1-4-1 ATS w/ Jordan Love
GB: 5-12-1 ATS vs. Detroit
GB: H/C Matt LaFleur 18-3 SU + 10-10-1 ATS vs a backup QB
GB: 31-9 SU & 24-16 ATS @ Hm vs. non NFC North teams
GB: Matt LaFluer 21-7 SU + 14-13-1 ATS in December games
GB: H/C Matt LaFleur 19-7-1 ATS 3pt or more dog
GB: 12-3 SU + 11-4 ATS vs. Chicago inc: 1-2 2025
GB: 28-14 ATS vs Chicago
GB: Favored to beat Chicago 30 of 34 games
GB: H/C LaFleur 21-21 SU +; 26-16-1 ATS as a dog.
HOU: 8-1 SU after allowing 30+pts under DeMeco Ryans
HOU: 23-13 UNDER at home
IND: 6-0 SU + ATS vs. Titans
IND: Favs 40-15-1 SU + 34-22 ATS inc: 30-10-1 SU + 24-17 ATS as 3+pt favs.
IND: 13-5 ATS as home dogs of 6+ last 30 years
IND: 12-2-1 ATS @ Houston**
IND: Daniel Jones 1-17 SU + 7-11 ATS at night
JACK: Trevor Lawrence 13-20 ATS vs. losing teams
JACK: 18-9 ATS vs Winning teams
JACK: 30-14-2 ATS vs. Colts inc: 18-3-1
JACK: 7-7 SU + ATS in International Games
JACK: 5-13 SU + 5-13 ATS playing on West coast
JACK: Trevor Lawrence: 18-12 SU as a favorite
KC: 11-7 SU + 7-10-1 ATS vs. Playoff teams
KC: Mahomes after a loss: 22-8 SU, 13-16-1 ATS
KC: Mahomes 30-8 SU + 20-17-1 ATS vs. NFC
KC: Mahomes 18-2 vs. non winning NFC teams on road
KC: Patrick Mahomes 12-5 SU + 13-3-1 ATS as a Dog
KC: Patrick Mahomes 1-2 SU NFL + 1-7 SU college as a home Dog.
KC: 20-6-1 ATS as an underdog
KC: H/C Andy Reid d/d underdog 6 times: 2-5 SU & 6-1 ATS since 2007
KC: Pat Mahomes 8-1 SU + ATS when a dog or favorite of less than 3pts in Post season
KC: Pat Mahomes 17-4 SU + 15-6 ATS in Playoffs
KC: Andy Reid 26-17 SU + 25-18 ATS in playoffs
KC: Mahomes 17-3 SU + 11-9 ATS AFC West road games
KC: H/C Andy Reid 33-8 SU + 25-16 ATS with an extra week of rest
KC: 19-4 SU vs. Raiders
KC: Pat Mahomes 36-40-1 ATS + 36-12-1 Under at home
LAC: Herbert 7+pt Fav: 10-3 SU + 8-5 ATS
LAC: 39-56-3 ATS at home
LAC: 10-2-1 ATS vs. AFC West (0-1 TYr)
LAC: Justin Herbert 22-9-1 ATS vs. AFC West
LAC: Justin Herbert: 22-28-1 ATS in games 3pt or less spread
LAR: Sean McVay 13-7 ATS vs. Seattle
LAR: 20-9-2 SU + 20-11 ATS on East Coast
LAR: 18-12-2 ATS on East Coast
LAR: 15-3 SU + 14-4-1 ATS vs. Arizona
LAR: 8-2 vs. Seattle
LAR: Sean McVay 12-6 ATS vs. Seattle inc: 11-3 ATS since 2019
LAR: 21-1 SU after a SU loss as 4+pt RFav
LAR: Sean McVay 28-12 SU + 27-12-1 ATS in Dec.
LAR: 4+RF’s 21-2 SU + 12-11 ATS (19-3-1 in 6pt teaser)
LAR: Sean McVay 33-22-1 ATS vs. NFC West
LV: 10-6 SU + 13-3 ATS vs. Denver
LV: 7-18 ATS last 21 years as 4+pt Fav
LV: 3-12 SU + 4-9-2 ATS after facing KC since 2017**
LV: Cousins primetime: 21-24-1 SU + 19-27 ATS
LV: Cousins as dog in PT: 8-16-1 SU + 11-14 ATS
LV: Kirk Cousins 17-24 ATS at home since 2020
LV: 2-11 vs AFC West (1-0 TYr)
NE: Pats/Maye 13-1 SU & 10-4 ATS as favs
NE: Mike Vrabel 16-6 SU as RFavs w/ Pats & Titans
MIA: 4-26 SU as road dog
MIA: 2-14 RG w/ a back up QB
MIA: 16-26 ATS w/ spread of 4 or less
MIA: 11-32 SU as a franchise in 32° temperatures inc: 0-14
MIA: 8-3 SU + 9-2 ATS vs. Pats streak** inc: 7-1 SU & ATS by Tua Tags
MIA: 0-5 SU + 1-4 ATS on Thursday’s under McDaniel
MIA: 16-4 SU + 13-6-1 ATS since 2016 vs. NYJ
MINN: After a loss under Kevin O’Connell 9-14-1 ATS
MINN: Kyler Murray 1-5 SU/ATS off a bye week
MINN: Kyler Murray 32-20-2 ATS as dog inc: 15-6-2 as 4+pt dogs + 22-7-2 on road
MINN: Kyler 10-15 ATS as Home Favs
LAC: 10-1-1 ATS vs. AFC West last 2 seasons
NE: Mike Vrabel as Dog: 32-33 SU & 36-27-2 ATS
NYG: 3-25 SU non Sunday games since 2017
NYG: Finished below .500 SU on the road in 13 straight seasons
NYG: 10-34 SU on road = 3rd-worst win % in the NFL
NYG: allowed 20+pts 14 of 15 road games
NYG: 8-4 Over w/ Jaxson Dart @ QB
NYG: 4-20 SU night games inc: 1-11 at home
NYJ: Home dog: 11-21 SU + 14-18 ATS
NYJ: Geno Smith 7-19 SU as a home Dog inc: 1-11
NYJ: Geno Smith 8-16-1 ATS at home run
NYJ: 1-21 SU & 3-19 ATS in game after facing Bills
NYJ: 2-16 SU @ night since 2019
NYJ: Justin Fields 2-27 SU + 9-19-1 ATS when opponent scores 20+pts
NYJ: Tyrod Taylor 37-22-4 ATS inc: 7-1-1 ATS run
NYJ: Tyrod Taylor 17-6-1 ATS playing on losing teams
NYJ: 1-15 SU on the road vs. AFC East
NYJ: 6-23 SU & 10-19 ATS vs. AFC East
NYJ: Geno Smith in primetime 4-15 SU inc: 3-14 SU as Dog
NYJ: Geno Smith -5 or higher 6 times = 7-1 SU
NYJ: Geno Smith as a favorite of 3+pts: 18-6 SU
NYJ: Geno Smith 14-20-4 ATS as Fav vs. 29-27-3 ATS as Dog
NE: 25-31 SU + 25-29-2 ATS vs. winning teams
NE: 26-4 SU v Jets + 12-4 ATS since 2018
NE: d/d favs vs. NYJ: 15-1 SU + 9-7 ATS since 1980
NE: H/C Mike Vrabel 38-11 SU + 31-17-1 ATS vs. losing teams
NE: 14-38 SU as an underdog since 2021
NE: 9-1 SU + 7-3 ATS on road
NO: Spencer Rattler 1-13 SU + 2-12 ATS
NO: as home dog since 2020: 4-17 SU + 5-16 ATS (Worst in NFL)
NO: 17-6-1 ATS on road vs. NFC South inc: 10-0 ATS dog since 2018
NO: 14-18-2 ATS vs. NFC South
PHI: 12-0 SU + 11-1 ATS vs. Pitt at home**
PHI: 8-16 ATS off a loss…3-6 ATS off 2 straight loses
PHI: 1-6 ATS as d/d favs
PHI: 14-6 SU + ATS vs. playoff teams
PHI: 15-5 SU + 10-8-2 ATS vs. Wash
PHI: Jalen Hurts 32-6 SU as HFav inc: 5-1 SU + 4-2 ATS in playoffs
PITT: Road Unders 92-73-1
PITT: 46-35-1 ATS as road dogs + 35-43-2 ATS as RFavs
PITT: Lost 7 straight playoff games since 2016/17
PITT: Outscored 73-3 in 1st Qtr in those 7 playoff games
PITT: 4-15 SU + 8-10-1 ATS as an underdog of 7+pts
PITT: favorite of 4+pts: 15-27-1 ATS since 2017
PITT: 23-1 SU @ home MNF since 1992
PITT: 19-15-1 SU/ATS with a backup QB since 2015 (Mason Rudolph)
PITT: 5-19 SU + 9-15 ATS on Thursdays inc: 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS since 1980
PITT: 2-9 SU + 3-8 ATS on Thursday night road games
PITT/BALT: Series: 45pts+ total UNDER is 8-3.
PITT/BALT: 18 of 22 meetings decided by 7pts or less
PITT/BALT: Dog 31-12-3 ATS inc: 18-4-1 since 2015
PITT/BALT: when line 3+ the underdog 25-6-3 ATS
SEA: Sam Darnold 11-7 as a home dog
SEA: 28-14-2 ATS after a home loss last 20yrs
SEA: 14-3 at home in playoffs inc: 12 straight wins
SEA: NFC West 28-13 ATS vs teams outside division
SEA: Last year 9-2 SU + ATS vs. playoff teams
SEA: Sam Darnold 14-0 SU + 11-3 ATS 6+pt favs.
SEA: Sam Darnold as fav: 4+ pts 17-1 SU + 13-5 ATS
SEA: Darnold 33-7 SU + 27-12-1 ATS (1st 6 yrs 21-35 SU & 22-33-1 ATS)
SEA: Darnold 3+pt Favs: 21-6 SU + 14-12-1 ATS
SEA: Sam Darnold 52-43 SU + 48-45-2 ATS (20-29 SU as a dog + 32-14 SU as fav)
DAL/WASH: SERIES: last 13 meetings: 11 decided by 10+pt
SEA: 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS vs. Arizona
SF: Kyle Shanahan teams: 16-1 SU + 9-7-1 ATS as D/D favs
SF: NFC West 25-8 ATS vs. teams outside division (SF 9-3)
SF: Kyle Shanahan 31-25 SU/ATS w/ backup QB
SF: vs. a defense allowing 17 PPG or less: 1-10 ATS
SF: 10-3 SU + ATS NFL West road games
SF: On extended prep, Kyle Shanahan 20-16 SU
SF: 7-3 SU + 6-4 ATS vs. Seahawks
SF: 25-11-1 vs. Rams since 2008 inc: 10-4
SF: Brock Purdy 2-5 SU + ATS as a dog in his career
TB: Baker Mayfield Division gms 5-16 ATS @ hm & 12-12 RG
TB: Baker Mayfield 2-13 SU & 4-11 ATS @ Night
TB: Baker Mayfield 17-11 ATS on road w/ TB (he’s 22-6 in 6pt teaser)
TB: Baker Mayfield 18-5 SU as a 6+pt fav
TB: Baker Mayfield 23-38-1 ATS as Fav
TENN: Lost 9 straight vs. AFC South + 3-15 ATS vs. AFC South
TENN: 0-12 ATS after a SU win
WASH: Marcus Mariota 12-21-2 ATS as favorite
DAL/WASH: SERIES: last 13 meetings: 11 decided by 10+pt
WASH: Jayden Daniels lost 6 straight games
****
OTHER TRENDS
THANKSGIVING DAY TRENDS
FAVORITES: 51-12 SU & 40-23 ATS since 2004 inc: 0-3 SU & ATS in 2025
RF’s on Thanksgiving: 25-2 SU & 20-7 ATS since 2004**
Night game Favs: 14-5 ATS + 12-7 UNDER since they started the 3-games back in 2006
$$
Totals 37 or less = UNDER 35-17-1 since 2020
Teams off shut out loss: 36-17-3 ATS inc: 6-0 ATS this season.
Teams off scoring 3pts or less: 90-63-5 ATS since 2014
D/D fav in night games: 51-70-3 ATS last 20yrs
UNDER: 24-12 55+pts totals since 20189
PRIME TIME: Rookie QBs 25-58 SU road games in primetime since 1970
Coaches Fired System: Teams 18-24 SU & 23-19 ATS 1st game following firing since 2003 (0-1)
Eliminated teams vs teams alive final 2 weeks: 118-75-4 ATS since 1990 (8-6 in 2025)
2025/26 Regular season: 272 games…146 were one score games
Home dogs of 7+ pts: 23-4-2 ATS first 9 games of the season since 2022
Road teams Saturday regular season 70-46-6 ATS inc: 36-17-2 ATS in division gms
$$$$$
.
.
.
SUPER BOWL NOTES/TRENDS heading into 2026/27 season
Playoff Underdogs 66-45 ATS since 2017 (6-7 in 2025
Winner of Super Bowl: 51-7-2 ATS
Underdog 6-pt teasers last 24 Super Bowls: 21–4
Teams leading at half: 6-11 ATS 2nd half last 17 SBs
Sam Darnold 31-7 SU & 26-11-1 ATS (1st 6 yrs 21-35 SU & 22-33-1 ATS)
Sam Darnold as 4+pt fav 4+ pts 16-1 SU & 12-5 ATS
Team w/ better win %: 2-17 ATS last 19 SB’s
SEA: 18-2 SU on road
SEA: 9-2 SU & ATS vs. playoff teams
NE: 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS on road
When spread is 3+, the underdog is 13-5 ATS since 2001-02
Underdogs: 18–7 ATS (75%) last 25 Super Bowls
SB Favs 37-23 SU & 28-30-2 ATS + Over 30-28-1 (No total in SB #1)
SB winners w/ 6pt spread or less: 32-1 ATS…4pt or less 25-0 ATS
18th straight SB Fav laying less than 7pts
Most common final margin is 3pts (9x) next 4pts (6 times)
Don’t fall behind: only 6 teams have overcome d/digit deficits to win
Teams that score 27+pts in SB: 33-5 SU & 30-7-1 ATS since 1980
Teams that score less than 20pts in SB: 2-26 SU & 4-23-1 ATS since 1980
Only 2 SB’s have gone to OT
$$$$
$
$
$
2025/26 NFL REGULAR SEASON FINAL BETTING STATS
Home Tms: 146-125-1 SU & 133-132 ATS (Not counting International games)
FAVS: 178-93-1 SU & 131-138-3 ATS
Road Favs: 72-40-1 SU & 55-58 ATS
6pt Favs: 78-16-1 SU & 50-45 ATS
10pt Favs: 26-2 SU & 17-11 ATS
B/B RG: 32-38-1 SU & 38-33 ATS
3 Gm RT: 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS
OVERS: 142-127-3
FAV/OVER: 68… FAV/UNDER: 65
DOG/OVER: 74…. DOG/UNDER: 62
$$$$$
2024/25 NFL REGULAR SEASON BETTING STATS
FAVS: 199-86 SU & 149-126-2 ATS
Home Teams: 136-127 SU & 144-126-4 ATS (Not counting International games)
Road Favs: 61-47-2 ATS
6pt Favs: 71-29 SU & 48-52 ATS
10pt Favs: 17-2 SU & 10-9 ATS
B/B RG: 34-37 SU & 33-38 ATS
3 Gm RT: 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS
OVERS: 150-125-1
COMBOS:
FAV/OVER: 76 …. FAV/UNDER: 63 FAV/PUSH: 1
DOG/OVER: 65 …. DOG/UNDER: 55 PUSH/UNDER: 1
$$$$$
2023/24 NFL SEASON REGULAR SEASON TRENDS
FAVS SU: 185-83 ATS: 136-118-7
6pts Favs: 55-21 SU & 39-37-1 ATS
10pt Favs: 21-4 SU & 14-11 ATS
B/B RG: 28-43 SU & 36-32-3 ATS (Non Bye teams/situations)
3 gm RT: 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS
OVERS: 109-133
******
NFL 2022/23 REGULAR SEASON TRENDS
FAVS: 179-92-1 SU 124-144-4 ATS
6pts Favs: 71-18 SU 39-50 ATS
10pt Favs: 23-3 9-17 ATS
B/B RG: 28-43 SU 33-35-2 ATS
OVERS: 117-154-1
*************************
2023/24 FREE NFL: 24-26-1
2022/23 FREE NFL: 27-23-1
2021/22 FREE NFL: 35-24-3
2020/21 FREE NFL: 19-23-3
2019/20 FREE NFL: 25-26
2018/19 FREE NFL: 33-16-1
2017/18 FREE NFL: 29-18-5
2016/17 FREE NFL: 24-16-1
******
2021 NFL REGULAR SEASON TOTALS:
FAVS: 166-100-1 SU & 127-139-1 ATS (1 pick)
HM DOGS: 37-68 SU & 52-55 ATS
D/D Favs: 39-7 SU & 29-17-1 ATS
6pt Favs: 96-28-1 SU & 64-57-2 ATS
3pt Favs: 43-46 SU & 38-52 ATS
B/B Road Games: 34-35 SU & 36-33 ATS
3rd Straight RG: 3-1 SU & ATS
O/U: 126-139-2
Combo’s:
Favs/Over: 56 Dog/Over: 69
Favs/Under: 69 Dog/Under: 67
Favs/PUSH: 2 PUSH/UNDER: 1
******
SB PARLAY/REVERSE COMBOS
Favorite/Over: 15 times
Favorite/Under: 12 times
Underdog/Over: 10 times
Underdog/Under: 13 times
(4 games omitted: SB 1 didn’t have a total, three games pushed on either the game or total)
FAV/OVER has it only three times since 2000.
********************
BIG NFL FAVS DON’T LOSE
6+pt Favorites:
2018/19: 84-23 SU & 51-54-2 ATS
2017/18: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
2016/17: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
2015/16: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
******
2020 NFL VEGAS SEASON AFTER WK #15
Home team: 109-94 SU & 84-113-6 ATS
Favs: 136-71-1 SU & 91-106-7 ATS
D/D favs: 29-6 SU & 14-20-1 ATS
6pts favs: 65-15 SU & 35-42-3 ATS
3pts favs: 37-30-1 SU & 32-32-4 ATS
B/B Road games: 23-21 SU & 25-18-1 ATS
3rd straight RG: 1-0 SU & ATS
HM DOGS: 23-48 SU & 29-39-4 ATS
Over/Unders: 99-107-1
Combos:
Favs/Over: 44 Favs/Under: 44
Favs/Push: 1 Dogs/Over: 51
Dogs/Under 59 Push/Under: 3
Push/Over: 4 Pk/OVER: 1
********************
2017/18 NFL VEGAS STATS REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 143-108 SU & 127-117-8 ATS (4 Lon/1 Mex)
FAVS: 181-74 SU & 134-102-9 ATS (1 game pick)
D/D FAVS: 27-4 SU & 16-17 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 70-39 SU & 50-42-6 ATS
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 33-38 SU & 34-34-3 ATS
HOME DOGS: 34-63 SU & 46-47-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 116-136-4
COMBINATIONS:
FAVS/OVERS: 53 FAVS/UNDERS: 78
DOGS/OVER: 54 DOGS/UNDER: 60
********************
NFL 2016/17 REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 151-100-1 SU & 119-122-11 ATS (4 gms N/A)
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 28-36-1 SU & 29-33-2 ATS
FAVS: 167-86-2 SU & 122-122-11 ATS (1gm Pick)
D/D FAVS: 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 59-38-2 SU & 52-43-4 ATS
HOME DOGS: 30-48 SU & 36-43-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-120-2
FAVS/OVERS: 65 FAVS/UNDERS: 62
DOGS/OVER: 62 DOGS/UNDER: 54
******
2015/16 REGULAR SEASON NFL
HOME TEAMS: 136-117 SU…117-130-6 ATS (3 gms London)
FAVORITES: 157-95 SU & 117-130-6 ATS (3 pickem)
10+PT FAVS: 15-5 SU & 9-11 ATS
3PT Favs or less: 46-47 SU & 38-49-6 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-53 SU & 42-41-3 ATS
OVERS: 118
UNDERS: 131
PUSH: 4
******
2014/15 NFL REGULAR SEASON>
Home tms: 144-101-1 SU & 114-135-3 ATS (4 neutral)
Home dogs: 26-49 SU & 35-41-1 ATS
Favorites: 169-83-1 SU & 120-130-3 ATS (3 pickem games)
10pt Favs: 21-2 SU & 11-12 ATS
6pt+ Favs: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 117-137-2
COMBOS
FAVS/OVERS: 54 FAVS/UNDERS: 64
DOGS/OVERS: 59 DOGS/UNDERS: 69
******
2013/14 REGULAR SEASON#’s
HOME TEAMS: 152-101-1 SU & 136-112-6 ATS
FAVORITES*: 179-75-1 SU & 132-115-8 ATS
10pts FAVS: 27-7 SU & 17-16-1 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-61 SU & 44-47-2 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-118-4
GAMES DECIDED BY 7pts or less: 123 of 256
COMBOS
FAVS/OVER: 66 FAVS/UNDER: 64
UNDERDOGS/OVER: 61 UNDERDOGS/UNDER: 54
******
NFL 2012/13 regular season
Home Teams: 126-139-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 49-46-1 ATS
Home Favs: 77-88-1 ATS
********************
SUPER BOWL NOTES thru: 23/24
Team with most Total yards is 43-15
Team with most Rushing yards is 43-14 (1 game tied)
SU SB winner is 49-7-2 ATS
Score less than 20pts: 2-25 SU & 4-22-1 ATS
Score 27+pts 31-5 SU & 28-7-1 ATS
Only 16 of the 58 Super Bowls have been decided by 1 score.
***
SB tams that fail to score 21 pts in the SB are 2-22 SU & 4-19-1 ATS.
(Exception..Giants over the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII & Pats in SB 53 13-3 over Rams)
Super Bowl teams scoring at least 27pts are 27-4 SU & 24-6-1 ATS.
(Exceptions Carolina (29) vs. Pats, SF (31) vs. Balt, Atl 28 vs. Pats, Pats vs. Eagles
********************
2018/19 NFL PLAYOFFS
PLAYING ONLY ONE: 4-1-1
$100 BEST BETS: 4-4-1
$50 OTHER PLAYS: 1-3
$25 IF YOU MUST: 3-1
OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE DAY: 2-3
EVERY BET/EVERY PLAY: 9-6-1
$100 WIN REVERSE: 3-3 = +540
$100 PARLAYS: 3-3 = +392
$100 PROP PLAYS: 24-21-2 = +500
***************
Join Wetzel’s Newsletter!
Need an edge up? Join my newsletter to stay up-to-date with the latest contests, pools, free picks & more...
