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Scott Wetzel’s Message


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2022: 6-3
THURSDAY: Coming later this week
MONDAY: UNDER 42.5 Rams @ 49ers = WIN
THURSDAY: UNDER 49-120 Miami @ Cincy = WIN
MONDAY: DALLAS +1 @ NY Giants = WIN
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2022 POOLS
TOP 5 ATS RADIO VEGAS POOLS: 10-10

Week #3: 1-4
Week #2: 2-3
Week #1: 3-2
Week #4: 4-1
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FAVORITE NFL TRENDS: 7-3
Week #5 coming later
Week #3: 4-1
Week #2: 3-2
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NFL VEGAS SEASON TRENDS
FAVS: 38-26 SU & 28-35-1 ATS
6pts Favs: 12-7 SU & 9-10 ATS
10pt Favs: 4-0 & 2-2 ATS
B/B RG: 5-5 SU & 5-3-2 ATS
OVERS: 26-38
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Week #4
FAVS: 10-6 SU & 7-9 ATS
6pts Favs: 2-0 & 1-1 ATS
10pt Favs: No Games this week
B/B RG: 1-3 SU & 1-2-1 ATS
OVERS: 8-8
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NFL record 23 games have been decided by 3pts or less thru 4 weeks of the season.
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THURSDAY
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER
INDY: 6-1 ATS as dogs
INDY: 11-5 ATS + Over 10-6 away
INDY: 9-4 w/ RB J. Taylor rushes 100+yds…1-8 no 100yds (LWk vs. KC)
DENV: 15-6 UNDER
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SUNDAY
GIANTS @ GREEN BAY (9:15am ET)
NYG 20-10 ATS as road dogs….but 3-6 last year
NYG: 22-5-1 UNDER run
NYG: Offensive TD’s in NFL 28
NYG: 2nd worst record since 2017 25-60 behind NYJ GB: 27-7 SU & 22-9-3 ATS vs. winning tm from outside of NFC North
GB: 44-14 SU & 36-22 ATS w/ h/c LaFleur(26-4 SU & 20-10 ATS @ hm) GB: 14-6 ATS run—inc: 8-3 at home
1st time BOTH teams have winning records in 31 London games*
First game in London for GB….last team to make the trip
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PITTSBURGH@ BUFFALO
PITT: 0-7 w/out JJ Watt
PITT 16-9 UNDER RG
PITT: 43-26-2 ATS as Dog under h/c Mike Tomlin inc: 12-5-1 at home
PITT: 15-8 ATS as dog
PITT: 5-0 SU & ATS after 3 straight loses
PITT 11-3 SU & ATS vs. Buffalo
BUF: 28-2 SU & 18-10-2 ATS as Hm D/D Favs
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LA CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND
LAC: 9-3 ATS road game run
LAC: 11-4 OVER run
CLEV: 6-10 ATS run
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CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
MINN: 10-17 ATS run
MINN: 12-5-2 OVER HG
MINN: one score game in 21 of 28
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DETROIT @ NEW ENGLAND
DET: QB Jared Goff 4-15-1 last 19 starts….4-20-1 w/out Sean McVay
DET: 9-35-1 SU run inc: 4-16-1 SU & 14-7 ATS under h/c Campbell
NE: 11-6 OVER
NE: 18-20 since Brady left inc: 9-15 vs. winning teams
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SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS
SEA: Geno Smith 13-4-2 ATS as 4+pt Dogs
SEA: Geno Smith 15-23-1 SU as starter
SEA: 13-20 ATS run
SEA: 19-10-1 UNDER run
NO: 53-32-1 ATS off loss inc: 29-10 on road
NO: 9-5-1 ATS as dogs (4-5 last 9)
NO: 11-6-1 ATS as home dogs
NO: 8-3 UNDER run
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MIAMI @ NY JETS
MIAMI vs. Jets: Miami 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS
MIA: 10-3 ATS run
MIA: Bridgewater 24-5 ATS on road inc: 11-1 vs. winning teams
MIA: Bridgewater 43-21 ATS…7 picks in 6 loses….0 in 7 wins
NYJ: 6-19 ATS vs. AFC East
NYJ: 8-13 ATS run
NYJ:12-6 OVER run
NYJ: Worst record in NFL 24-61 since 2017
NYJ: 11 straight seasons without a playoff berth
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ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA: 9-5 ATS run
TAMPA: 11-5 ATS at home
TAMPA: 30+pts in 13 of 16 last hm gms
TBAY: Tom Brady off LOSS: 53-16 (49-24 ATS off a loss)
Brady: 12-4 ATS off b/b losses + 23-7 ATS off a double-digit loss

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TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON
TENN: 8-2 UNDER run
TENN: 29-17-2 OVER w/ Ryan Tannehill as starter
WASH: 19-12 ATS when 3pt dog or less
WASH: 11-5 UNDER run
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HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE
HOU: 5-2-1 ATS run
HOU: 4-21-1 SU run J’VILLE: 14-8 UNDER run
J’VILLE: 7-14 ATS run
J’VILLE: 5-31 SU last 2+ years
Jags 0-4 SU & ATS when favs vs Houston
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SAN FRANCISCO @ CAROLINA
SF: 37-17 w/ Jimmy G….8-33 when he doesn’t start
SF: Jimmy G 25-9 SU & 20-13 vs. Non NFC West teams
SF: 11-1 UNDER run
SF: 9-22-1 ATS after a d/d win over rival Rams
CAR: 3-16 SU & ATS run inc: 1-10 ATS run
CAR: 11-26 SU under H/C Matt Rhule
CAR: had a lead in 17 of last 19 games = 3-16
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DALLAS @ LA RAMS
DAL: 42-20-1 ATS as dog since 1990
DAL: 13-2 ATS vs. NFC teams
DAL: 19-6 ATS run
LA RAMS: 32-15 SU on road under Sean McVay
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PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA
ARI: 3-13 ATS at home
ARI: K. Murray 18-11-1 ATS as dog for his career
ARI: outscored 70-16 in the 1st half…scoreless in the 1st Qtr
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CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE
BALT: 1st team to blow a 21pt 4th qtr lead the last 12 years…711-0!
BALT 0-5 SU & ATS home run
CIN: 1st time as dog TYr
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MONDAY
LA RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY
KC: 14-21 ATS run
KC: Mahomes 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS on MNF

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NFL NOTES FOR 2022:
Last 18 teams to start 0-2…failed to make the playoffs. (Cincy/TENN/Raiders/Atlanta)
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At least 2 teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs in 18 of 19 yrs.
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At least 1 team finished in first place in their division the season after finishing in last in 17 of the last 19 seasons
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At least 4 teams have made the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year before since 1990
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ODDS AND ENDS
Browns have started 30 different QB’s since 2000*
NFL East has had a different champ for 18 straight seasons (Dallas LYr)
Dallas not advanced past the 1st rd of the playoffs since winning SB in 96 Dallas has 6 games vs. teams with less rest…most in NFL history
93 of the 272 regular season gms will be played with unbalanced rest. 34%….up from 85 last year
Detroit ONE playoff win last 65yrs….longest playoff draught 33yrs!—1991
Packers, Chiefs, Eagles & Dolphins play 3 straight road games
KC starts the season vs. 8 winning teams from last year
Pittsburgh travels fewest miles 6,442…never leave the ET zone**

REUNION GAMES: 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS
Carolina vs. Cleveland Sept. 11 Baker Mayfield vs. Browns = LOSE SU & ATS
Jets vs. Baltimore Sept. 11 Joe Flacco vs. Ravens = LOSE SU & ATS
Denver @ Seattle Sept 12 Russell Wilson vs. Seahawks = LOSE SU & ATS
New Orleans vs. TBay Sept 18 Winston vs. Bucs = LOSE SU & ATS
Houston @ Chicago Sept. 25….Lovie Smith vs. Bears = LOSE SU & PUSH
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Jacksonville @ Philly Oct. 2 (Doug Pederson vs. Eagles)
Detroit vs. Miami Oct. 10 Dan Campbell vs. Dolphins
New Orleans vs. Las Vegas Oct. 30 Dennis Allen vs. Raiders
Dallas @ Green Bay Nov. 13 Mike McCarthy @ Packers
Cleveland @ Houston Dec. 4 Deshaun Watson vs. Texans
Las Vegas vs. New England Dec. 18 (Josh McDaniels vs. Pats)
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OTHER KEY GAMES
Buffalo @ KC Oct. 16 Revenge for Buffalo
Cincinnati vs. KC Dec. 4 Revenge for KC
Indy at Jacksonville Sept. 18 Revenge for Colts
LA Chargers vs. LV Raiders Sept. 11 Revenge for LAC
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Nov. 6…. Revenge for Brady/Bucs
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2022 PREDICTIONS:
SUPER BOWL WINNER: CINCINNATI BUNGLES 22-1
SUPER BOWL MATCH UP Cincinnati vs. New Orleans
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SB Tickets: Denver 17-1 Raiders 40-1 Dolphins 40-1 Steelers 70-1
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AFC EAST…….Buffalo -230….(Miami +450)
AFC NORTH…CINCY +165….(Pitts +950)
AFC SOUTH…TENN +185
AFC WEST…..LVR +650………(Denv +260)
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NFC EAST…….Dallas +155…(Giants +800)
NFC NORTH…Minn +240
NFC SOUTH…NO +300………(Atl +3200)
NFC WEST…..Rams +125
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2021/22 FREE NFL: 35-24-3
2020/21 FREE NFL: 19-23-3
2019/20 FREE NFL: 25-26
2018/19 FREE NFL: 33-16-1
2017/18 FREE NFL: 29-18-5
2016/17 FREE NFL: 24-16-1
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2021 NFL REGULAR SEASON TOTALS:
FAVS: 166-100-1 SU & 127-139-1 ATS (1 pick)
HM DOGS: 37-68 SU & 52-55 ATS
D/D Favs: 39-7 SU & 29-17-1 ATS
6pt Favs: 96-28-1 SU & 64-56-2 ATS
3pt Favs: 43-46 SU & 38-52 ATS
B/B Road Games: 34-35 SU & 36-33 ATS
3rd Straight RG: 3-1 SU & ATS
O/U: 126-139-2
Combo’s:
Favs/Over: 56 Dog/Over: 69
Favs/Under: 69 Dog/Under: 67
Favs/PUSH: 2 PUSH/UNDER: 1
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SB PARLAY/REVERSE COMBOS
Favorite/Over: 15 times
Favorite/Under: 12 times
Underdog/Over: 10 times
Underdog/Under: 13 times
(4 games omitted: SB 1 didn’t have a total, three games pushed on either the game or total)

FAV/OVER has it only three times since 2000.

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BIG NFL FAVS DON’T LOSE
6+pt Favorites:
2018/19: 84-23 SU & 51-54-2 ATS
2017/18: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
2016/17: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
2015/16: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS

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2020 NFL VEGAS SEASON AFTER WK #15
Home team: 109-94 SU & 84-113-6 ATS
Favs: 136-71-1 SU & 91-106-7 ATS
D/D favs: 29-6 SU & 14-20-1 ATS
6pts favs: 65-15 SU & 35-42-3 ATS
3pts favs: 37-30-1 SU & 32-32-4 ATS
B/B Road games: 23-21 SU & 25-18-1 ATS
3rd straight RG: 1-0 SU & ATS
HM DOGS: 23-48 SU & 29-39-4 ATS
Over/Unders: 99-107-1

Combos:
Favs/Over: 44 Favs/Under: 44
Favs/Push: 1 Dogs/Over: 51
Dogs/Under 59 Push/Under: 3
Push/Over: 4 Pk/OVER: 1

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2017/18 NFL VEGAS STATS REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 143-108 SU & 127-117-8 ATS (4 Lon/1 Mex)
FAVS: 181-74 SU & 134-102-9 ATS (1 game pick)
D/D FAVS: 27-4 SU & 16-17 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 86-20 SU & 56-48-2 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 70-39 SU & 50-42-6 ATS
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 33-38 SU & 34-34-3 ATS
HOME DOGS: 34-63 SU & 46-47-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 116-136-4

COMBINATIONS:
FAVS/OVERS: 53 FAVS/UNDERS: 78
DOGS/OVER: 54 DOGS/UNDER: 60

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NFL 2016/17 REGULAR SEASON:
HOME TMS: 151-100-1 SU & 119-122-11 ATS (4 gms N/A)
2nd of B/B ROAD GMS: 28-36-1 SU & 29-33-2 ATS
FAVS: 167-86-2 SU & 122-122-11 ATS (1gm Pick)
D/D FAVS: 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS
6pt+ FAVS: 63-16-1 SU & 53-32-4 ATS
3pt/less FAVS: 59-38-2 SU & 52-43-4 ATS
HOME DOGS: 30-48 SU & 36-43-4 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-120-2

FAVS/OVERS: 65 FAVS/UNDERS: 62
DOGS/OVER: 62 DOGS/UNDER: 54

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2015/16 REGULAR SEASON NFL
HOME TEAMS: 136-117 SU…117-130-6 ATS (3 gms London)
FAVORITES: 157-95 SU & 117-130-6 ATS (3 pickem)
10+PT FAVS: 15-5 SU & 9-11 ATS
3PT Favs or less: 46-47 SU & 38-49-6 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-53 SU & 42-41-3 ATS
OVERS: 118
UNDERS: 131
PUSH: 4

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2014/15 NFL REGULAR SEASON
Home tms: 144-101-1 SU & 114-135-3 ATS (4 neutral)
Home dogs: 26-49 SU & 35-41-1 ATS
Favorites: 169-83-1 SU & 120-130-3 ATS
(3 pickem games)
10pt Favs: 21-2 SU & 11-12 ATS
6pt+ Favs: 87-24-1 SU & 52-57-3 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 117-137-2

COMBOS
FAVS/OVERS: 54 FAVS/UNDERS: 64
DOGS/OVERS: 59 DOGS/UNDERS: 69

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2013/14 REGULAR SEASON#’s
HOME TEAMS: 152-101-1 SU & 136-112-6 ATS
FAVORITES*: 179-75-1 SU & 132-115-8 ATS
10pts FAVS: 27-7 SU & 17-16-1 ATS
HOME DOGS: 32-61 SU & 44-47-2 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 134-118-4
GAMES DECIDED BY 7pts or less: 123 of 256

COMBOS
FAVS/OVER: 66 FAVS/UNDER: 64
UNDERDOGS/OVER: 61 UNDERDOGS/UNDER: 54

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NFL 2012/13 regular season
Home Teams: 126-139-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 49-46-1 ATS
Home Favs: 77-88-1 ATS

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SB tams that fail to score 21 pts in the SB are 2-22 SU & 4-19-1 ATS.
(Exception..Giants over the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII & Pats in SB 53 13-3 over Rams)

Super Bowl teams scoring at least 27pts are 27-4 SU & 24-6-1 ATS.
(Exceptions Carolina (29) vs. Pats, SF (31) vs. Balt, Atl 28 vs. Pats, Pats vs. Eagles

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2018/19 NFL PLAYOFFS

PLAYING ONLY ONE: 4-1-1
$100 BEST BETS: 4-4-1
$50 OTHER PLAYS: 1-3
$25 IF YOU MUST: 3-1
OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE DAY: 2-3
EVERY BET/EVERY PLAY: 9-6-1
$100 WIN REVERSE: 3-3 = +540
$100 PARLAYS: 3-3 = +392
$100 PROP PLAYS: 24-21-2 = +500
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